"‘Non-military’ clearing of the Strait of Hormuz? Trump launches a new move: ‘Guidance operation begins on the 4th’, Iran: ‘Interference will be regarded as a violation of the ceasefire agreement’"
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The Strait of Hormuz faces a new variable.
According to CCTV News, on May 3rd, Trump announced on social media that the United States would launch an operation codenamed "Freedom Plan" at 4 a.m. Middle East Time on May 4th to guide commercial ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz through safely.
Two senior U.S. officials disclosed to the media that the so-called "guidance" is not military escort, but a coordination mechanism involving relevant countries, insurance companies, and shipping organizations—the core task is to locate Iranian mines deployed in the Strait and provide navigation safety routes to transiting vessels.
Nevertheless, U.S. Central Command is still assigning 15,000 soldiers, guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 military aircraft and drones to the operation.
Trump called this a “humanitarian gesture,” but shifted his tone: if the operation is obstructed, “we will have to respond with strong measures.”
According to Xinhua News Agency, Aziz, chairman of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, immediately warned that any U.S. interference with the “new maritime management regime” in the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire agreement. He also wrote:
“The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf will not be managed by Trump’s delusional posts.”
Since the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes against Iran at the end of February, Tehran has effectively closed this choke point responsible for nearly 20% of global oil and gas shipments. Helium transportation, essential for fertilizer, aluminum, and the AI industry, has also been interrupted. Around 1,600 commercial ships are stranded on both sides of the Strait.
In the past five weeks, just 15 vessels have passed through the IRGC-controlled Larak Island channel, each paying about $2 million in “passage fees”; most shipowners are from Asian countries or Greek companies, carrying crude oil, butane, and consumer goods.
The market response to the "Freedom Plan" has been lukewarm—U.S. stock futures spiked and then fell, oil prices dipped then rebounded, and investors are openly skeptical that this plan can truly change the situation.
Allies Hesitate, Shipowners Wary
European diplomats’ and shipowners’ attitudes toward the “Freedom Plan” perhaps speak louder than market movements.
Several diplomats point out that Trump previously called for NATO allies to send warships to help; none responded. Without warship escort and only by a coordination mechanism, it is unlikely to actually change the Strait’s situation. Moreover, Trump stated more than a month ago that the U.S. would help vessels transit, but nothing materialized—the first barrier facing the “Freedom Plan” is credibility.
Last month, the Trump administration also launched the “Maritime Freedom Construct.” In April, the U.S. State Department instructed embassies to persuade countries to join; according to senior U.S. officials, not a single country has signed up so far.
Shipowners’ concerns are even more specific. One European shipowner with four vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf said that there must be a “definite ceasefire” before the ships would set sail. GasLog COO Karasanos from Greece was even more direct:
“If you are guided out of port by Western warships, you may actually become a more attractive target for the Revolutionary Guard.”
Iran Responds Firmly, Strait Deadlock Deepens
As mentioned above, Aziz warned in his social media post, beginning: "The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf will not be managed by Trump’s delusional posts."
At the same time, the Iranian parliament is advancing a “Strait of Hormuz Management Law,” proposing a permanent ban on Israeli vessels, requiring “hostile country” vessels to pay “war reparations” before being allowed passage, while all other ships must obtain Iranian authorization. The Revolutionary Guard has also deployed mines in the Strait, further heightening risks for commercial transit.
On the diplomatic front, U.S.-Iran talks have deadlocked. On April 7th, both sides announced a temporary ceasefire to facilitate negotiations, but Iran’s recently submitted 14-point peace initiative—which includes payments to Tehran for war compensation and unfreezing frozen assets—are all unacceptable to the U.S. Trump said it is “very likely to be rejected.”
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bassent said Sunday that Iran is starting to feel the pressure of the blockade, and with oil storage gradually filling up, it may be forced to shut wells within a week. However, officials and analysts believe that economic pressure alone is unlikely to make Iran abandon its long-term strategic goals of maintaining its nuclear weapons program and funding regional proxy forces.
Markets Remain Skeptical; Senior Macro Strategist Projects Four Scenarios
After the announcement, Dow futures surged but later erased most gains, closing up only about 27 points (0.1%); S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also fell back to near flat after early highs.
On oil prices, WTI crude futures fell as much as 2%, briefly dropping below $100/barrel, then rebounded to a slight 0.1% gain. OPEC+ announced a minor increase in June output, but with the Strait closed, this action is largely symbolic.
Veteran Wall Street macro strategist and Bianco Research founder Jim Bianco outlined four possible scenarios:
First, the U.S. guides ships out, Iran holds back, crisis ends;
Second, Iran opens fire but is repelled by the U.S., crisis ends;
Third, Iran hits a ship or a ship strikes a mine; scenes of burning vessels would be a disaster for the U.S., especially if it’s a U.S. warship;
Fourth, the U.S. remains at the rhetoric stage and delays action—just as Trump threatened days ago to fire on around 40 speedboats in the Strait, but ultimately did not act.
Bianco further wrote:
(Personally) hoping for the first or second scenario, but worried about the third and fourth.
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