Not wanting to be controlled by the Hormuz any longer, Abu Dhabi is joining forces with global capital to invest tens of billions of dollars in building a new "oil export hub."

Not wanting to be controlled by the Hormuz any longer, Abu Dhabi is joining forces with global capital to invest tens of billions of dollars in building a new "oil export hub."

Abu Dhabi is reshaping the Middle East's energy export landscape with unprecedented force and speed.

L'imad Holding, the sovereign wealth fund led by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed Al Nahyan , is spearheading a strategy officially dubbed "Zero Hormuz," which aims to transform the port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman, completely bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, into a new oil export hub . L'imad plans to invest tens of billions of dollars in new port infrastructure outside the strait and has partnered with BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partnership, Temasek, and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to target infrastructure investments of up to $30 billion.

Goldman Sachs' commodities team's calculations provide quantitative support for this strategy: as regional pipeline capacity continues to expand, by the end of 2027, more than 45% of the Persian Gulf's pre-war exports will be able to bypass the Strait of Hormuz ; by the end of 2028, this proportion will exceed 60%. This means that Iran's strategic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz for energy exports to the Gulf over the past decades is being systematically dismantled.

In June of this year, UAE Trade Minister Thani Al Zeyoudi clearly stated that regardless of whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or not, the UAE aims to achieve "zero dependence" on the strait. This statement signifies a structural shift in the Gulf region's energy export pattern—no longer a contingency plan, but a long-term strategy.

Hundreds of billions of dollars poured into Fujairah

L'imad Holding is the key operator of this strategy. The fund manages approximately $300 billion. Sheikh Khaled took over the fund weeks before the outbreak of the war in Iran and also serves as chairman of the executive committee of the ADNOC board.

In terms of specific plans, L'imad has announced plans to privatize Abu Dhabi Ports Co. at a valuation of nearly $9 billion. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the fund will subsequently invest tens of billions of dollars in new port infrastructure outside the Straits, with a focus on Fujairah.

In May of this year, L'imad signed an agreement with BlackRock Global Infrastructure Partners, Temasek, and ADNOC to jointly secure up to $30 billion in investment in energy transportation, logistics, and water infrastructure. Abu Dhabi's choice to bring in external capital, rather than relying entirely on state funds, effectively provides BlackRock with a "tollbooth" route around Iran.

Meanwhile, ADNOC is constructing a second pipeline to Fujairah to double export capacity via the port, with Sheikh Khaled explicitly calling for its acceleration at a meeting in May. DP World is also independently pursuing a new container terminal project in Fujairah. This means that this relatively narrow stretch of coastline at the foot of the Hajar Mountains is poised to become one of the most crowded and valuable strategic properties in the Gulf region.

Goldman Sachs estimates that by the end of 2028, 60% of exports could bypass the Hormuz Belt.

In a research report released in July, Goldman Sachs' commodities team systematically calculated the progress and scale of regional pipeline expansion.

Goldman Sachs defines current effective bypass capacity as the combined flow of the Yanbu (East-West Pipeline), Fujairah (ADCOP Pipeline), and Ceyhan (Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline). Under the baseline scenario, this capacity will increase by 3.8 million barrels per day by the end of 2027, and by a cumulative increase of 7.3 million barrels per day by the end of 2028, bringing the total capacity to over 14 million barrels per day—compared to approximately 23 million barrels per day exported by the seven Gulf oil-producing countries that relied on pipelines to bypass the Hormuz before the war.

The UAE stands out in this regard: ADNOC’s second pipeline to Fujairah (the West-East Pipeline) is one of only two projects currently under construction; the Hamriyah-Fujairah pipeline is included in Goldman Sachs’ “accelerated scenario” – if this scenario is realized, the proportion of exports that can bypass the pipeline will reach 75% by the end of 2028, far higher than the 45% under the “conservative scenario” and the 60% under the baseline scenario.

Goldman Sachs also cited historical data, noting that the median construction period for Middle East pipelines is 2.5 years, with single-country-led projects progressing faster, especially under pressure from supply disruptions. The total construction cost of the seven projects is estimated to be between $30 billion and $48 billion—roughly in line with the investment scale of the joint BlackRock and L'imad platform.

Regarding the impact on oil prices, Goldman Sachs raised its long-term Brent crude oil assumption (3-year forward) by $9 to $76 per barrel at the height of the conflict, primarily reflecting a higher structural safety premium. However, the bank also warned that the continued expansion of bypass production capacity would pose a downside risk to this long-term assumption—for every barrel of crude oil Sheikh Khaled directs to Fujairah, the risk premium Iran can collect from the global market shrinks accordingly.

Fujairah is already operating under pressure.

Infrastructure investments have not yet been fully implemented, yet Fujairah is already handling a throughput far exceeding its design capacity.

According to Goldman Sachs data from late September, crude oil, refined petroleum products, and liquefied petroleum gas flowing through Fujairah totaled 3.6 million barrels per day, exceeding Abu Dhabi's 2.6 million barrels per day and more than double the pre-war level of approximately 1.7 million barrels per day.

In terms of countries, the UAE's exports have reached 110% of the 2025 average, second only to Saudi Arabia, while Iran's seaborne crude oil exports in September were almost zero. Following the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC during the conflict, ADNOC's crude oil production hit a record high of 4.1 million barrels per day in June, and it continues to load export cargoes in Fujairah and Sohar.

Goldman Sachs estimates that Persian Gulf oil exports (including "undercurrent exports") have rebounded to 23.3 million barrels per day in the past week, on par with the 2025 average, and more than doubled month-on-month in September. Crude oil contributed nearly 90% of the recovery, reaching 19 million barrels per day, equivalent to 108% of the 2025 average.

You can bypass the strait, but you can't bypass drones.

However, Fujairah is not a safe harbor. Located about 80 miles from the Strait of Hormuz, it is well within range of Iranian drones and short-range missiles.

Steffen Hertog, a professor at the London School of Economics, pointed out this risk in a Bloomberg report. In fact, Fujairah has already suffered multiple attacks during the conflict: the port was engulfed in flames on March 14, and it suffered at least seven attacks in the first month of the conflict; on March 31, Iran explicitly threatened to strike the port and its pipelines to block the UAE's bypass route; and on May 4, an Iranian strike on Fujairah's oil fields briefly pushed Brent crude oil prices above $114 per barrel.

Saudi Arabia's experience serves as a cautionary tale. Its 7 million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline—the region's largest Hormuz bypass—was forced to shut down on September 11 after a drone attack by pro-Iranian militias, and was not operational until September 28. A Goldman Sachs oil tracking report on September 14 noted that an attack on the same pipeline in April had resulted in a 700,000-barrel-per-day reduction in flow for four days; the latest attack was more severe, threatening the remaining approximately 2 million barrels per day of exports from Ayab. Saudi Arabia was subsequently forced to revert to exporting via Hormuz.

Sanam Vakil of Chatham House points out that a "zero Hormuz" policy is already a top priority for the UAE, but as Iranian proxies extend their reach beyond the Straits, Abu Dhabi must also prepare for attacks on infrastructure outside the Straits. The next major expenditure item in the L'imad budget is likely to be air defense systems.

The strategic value of Hormuz is being reassessed.

Significant disagreements have emerged regarding the future status of the Hormuz. On September 1st, US Treasury Secretary Bessent predicted that in two years the Hormuz would be "a worthless body of water." Qatar's Energy Minister immediately refuted this, calling it "completely wrong"—which is understandable, given that Qatar has no geographically alternative export routes and has already witnessed a significant decline in its natural gas revenue.

The reality may lie somewhere in between: Hormuz will not become worthless, but if Goldman Sachs' calculations come true, its value to Iran will be greatly reduced, while its value to those who own the port on the other side of the Hajar Mountains will increase significantly.

For investors, the implications of this structural shift are clear: the most strategically valuable real estate in the Gulf region is shifting from the interior of the Strait to the coast of the Gulf of Oman—and the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi has staked hundreds of billions of dollars and BlackRock’s capital on this assessment.

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