NYSE parent company ICE in talks to invest in "first prediction stock" Polymarket, valuation may reach $10 billion

Traditional financial giants are turning their attention to the emerging crypto prediction market. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, is in talks for a significant investment in crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket. This move may not only reshape Polymarket’s future but also marks further mainstream capital recognition for this emerging field.

The Wall Street Journal, citing informed sources, revealed that ICE is close to reaching a deal to invest $2 billion in Polymarket, giving the company a valuation of between $8 billion and $10 billion. Details are still being discussed, but the announcement could come as soon as this Tuesday.

For Polymarket, this investment from a world-leading exchange operator will greatly boost its credibility and provide strong support for its return to the crucial U.S. market. Since 2022, Polymarket has been banned from providing services to American users.

This potential deal comes as prediction markets are gaining increasing mainstream attention, while Polymarket’s relationship with U.S. regulators has improved under the more crypto-friendly Trump administration, paving the way for its return to the U.S. market.

Regulatory Thaw and Return to the U.S.

The road for Polymarket to return to the U.S. market is becoming increasingly clear. The company, founded in 2020, was officially banned from serving U.S. users after settling with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022. However, the political climate has since shifted, leading to new opportunities.

After the Trump administration took office, Polymarket’s relationship with authorities improved. Company founder and CEO Shayne Coplan shared a Bloomberg article on social media in mid-July, stating that investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the CFTC into the company had ended. In addition, following last November’s election, the FBI had seized Shayne Coplan’s phone.

To accelerate the return process, Polymarket took a series of strategic measures. In August, Donald Trump Jr., son of President Trump, joined the company’s advisory board, and his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, also became a Polymarket investor. Additionally, Polymarket acquired a small licensed U.S. exchange and clearinghouse.

Prediction Markets See Surging Mainstream Interest

ICE’s interest highlights the growing influence of prediction markets. Polymarket allows users to bet on questions of fact across topics as varied as politics, sports, and pop culture, rising to fame during the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Its election results prediction market attracted over $2 billion in trading volume and received widespread media coverage for accurately forecasting a Trump victory.

Polymarket is not unique; its competitors are also rapidly developing. For example, Kalshi reached a $2 billion valuation in a recent funding round and, through cooperation with Robinhood Markets, set trading volume records in recent weeks with its contracts related to the new NFL season.

Alongside early backers like billionaire Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, the entry of traditional financial giants such as ICE signals that prediction markets are moving from the margins to mainstream investors’ vision.

ICE’s Strategic Moves and Industry Controversy

ICE has a strong track record of capturing emerging trends in financial market infrastructure, and its negotiations with Polymarket are in line with its usual strategic style. This move by the exchange operator, which is valued at over $90 billion, is seen as a significant bet on the future potential of prediction markets.

It is noteworthy that ICE is also linked to the Trump administration. Its chairman and CEO, Jeffrey Sprecher, is married to Kelly Loeffler, a Trump ally who currently serves as the Administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration.

However, the expansion of prediction markets is not without controversy. Kalshi and Robinhood’s entry into the sports field has sparked strong protests from the traditional gambling industry and state-level gambling regulators. They argue that sports betting has traditionally been regulated at the state level, and prediction markets should not be involved. With ICE’s entry, it will undoubtedly place itself at the center of debate over the boundaries between financial innovation and traditional regulation.

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