"Observations on the US Black Friday shopping season: Shopping recommendations from ChatGPT increased by 28%, with Amazon and Walmart accounting for nearly 70% combined."

"Observations on the US Black Friday shopping season: Shopping recommendations from ChatGPT increased by 28%, with Amazon and Walmart accounting for nearly 70% combined."

During this year's US holiday shopping season, generative AI represented by ChatGPT is quietly changing consumers' shopping habits, but the dividends of this emerging traffic source do not seem to benefit all merchants; rather, they further consolidate the market position of e-commerce giants.

According to the latest data from mobile app analytics provider Apptopia, during the "Black Friday" shopping weekend from Thanksgiving to Sunday, recommendations brought to retailer mobile apps by ChatGPT increased 28% year-over-year. This data indicates that more and more consumers are beginning to use AI chatbots for shopping inspiration or to find deals.

However, the biggest beneficiaries of this growth trend are the top players in the market. The report states that Amazon's share of ChatGPT recommendation traffic surged from 40.5% last year to 54%. At the same time, Walmart's share jumped from 2.7% to 14.9%, with the two giants together claiming nearly 70% of the traffic.

Data from other sources also corroborates AI's increasing impact on e-commerce. According to a report released by Adobe, on "Black Friday" alone, US retail websites saw traffic from AI sources skyrocket by 805% year-over-year, showing that AI is taking on a more important role in the broader retail sector.

Giants monopolize new AI traffic; Amazon and Walmart are the biggest winners

Data shows that the emerging AI traffic channels have not created new opportunities for small and medium-sized retailers; instead, they have reinforced the market moat of e-commerce giants like Amazon and Walmart. AI seems more inclined to steer users toward these already dominant platforms.

Apptopia’s report details this trend. This shopping season, Amazon’s share of ChatGPT recommendation traffic climbed to 54%, a significant increase from 40.5% in 2024.

Walmart's performance is even more impressive, with its share jumping from a negligible 2.7% last year to 14.9% this year. This means that when consumers seek shopping advice from ChatGPT, in most cases, they are directed to these two retail giants.

Apptopia is not the only institution focused on the impact of AI on the holiday shopping season. Adobe has analyzed from a broader perspective the traffic AI tools bring to retail websites, with even more striking data and revealing the high value of such traffic.

Adobe’s report shows that on "Black Friday," AI-source traffic (measured by the number of shoppers who clicked links) to US retail websites grew 805% year-over-year; on "Cyber Monday," the increase was 670%. For the entire holiday shopping season so far (November 1 to December 1), overall AI traffic grew by 760%.

More importantly, Adobe found that users who enter retail websites through AI chatbots show a higher intent to buy, with a likelihood of completing a purchase that is 38% higher than ordinary users. This finding is significant for retailers and investors, indicating that traffic from AI is not only substantial in quantity but also has a higher conversion rate, demonstrating considerable commercial value.

AI recommendation traffic is growing, but overall scale remains small

Despite the increasingly prominent role of AI chatbots in shopping recommendations, their current absolute share of the overall recommendation traffic market remains minimal.

According to Apptopia's analysis, although the use of ChatGPT to search for e-commerce deals during "Black Friday" has grown significantly, it is still a niche choice.

Data shows that last year's "Black Friday" shopping season, recommendation sessions from ChatGPT to e-commerce apps accounted for only 0.64% of its total sessions. This year, the proportion has only increased slightly to 0.82%.

Apptopia defines a "recommendation session" as the user opening a retailer's mobile app within 30 seconds after using ChatGPT. The company notes that its data is drawn from sample groups in the US and is an estimate based on observed consumer behavior.

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