Official reports have not been released; Goldman Sachs estimates that the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States will rise to 235,000.

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On Friday local time, Goldman Sachs economists including Jan Hatzius stated in their latest research report that for the week ending October 4, the number of initial jobless claims in the US rose to 235,000, while Goldman Sachs estimates that the previous week's initial jobless claims were about 224,000.

In a report to clients last week, Goldman Sachs economists estimated that for the week ending September 27, initial jobless claims rose to about 224,000, higher than the 218,000 reported by the US government in the previous release.

Bloomberg Economics estimates that, for the week ending October 4, the number of initial jobless claims was 233,000, not far from Goldman’s estimate. This relatively low number suggests layoffs remain low.

Goldman uses the US Department of Labor’s pre-announced seasonal adjustment factors to adjust available raw state-level data in its calculations.

Due to the US federal government shutdown, the Department of Labor did not release its regular weekly initial jobless claims report on Thursday. This is the second consecutive week of not releasing the report, but most states' downloadable data are provided, allowing for the compilation of an equivalent national data series.

Goldman Sachs economists estimated the initial jobless claims for Hawaii and Massachusetts, assuming that these numbers are consistent with the latest published data.

Goldman Sachs economists also found that, for the week ending September 27, the estimated number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly to 1.92 million from the previous week’s 1.91 million.

Historical experience shows that after the US government reopens, the delayed data will be released with a lag, typically slightly longer than the shutdown's duration, and subsequent reports may also be delayed due to backlog.

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