Oil prices fall over 3%, reports: Trump has no intention of restarting full-scale war with Iran

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Impacted by easing geopolitical risks, international oil prices fell sharply on Thursday. As of press time, WTI crude fell 3.5% to $92.67 per barrel; Brent crude fell 3% to $95.17 per barrel.

According to the Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous U.S. officials, President Trump told aides that although there were occasional skirmishes between the U.S. and Iran, both sides had maintained a weeks-long ceasefire, and he himself was unwilling to restart a full-scale war against Iran. This statement eased market concerns over further escalation in the Middle East.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 3rd at the White House, President Trump told the media that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran were progressing smoothly, and an agreement could be reached by the end of the week. Trump added that once the U.S. and Iran reach an agreement, the Strait of Hormuz would "immediately" reopen for navigation, "but the precondition for reopening is that certain areas need final mine clearance."

Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon are about to reach a ceasefire agreement, and regional tensions are seeing a temporary easing. According to reports, a White House official told the media that Trump "always favors a diplomatic solution, and has made clear to Iran the consequences it will face if it rejects the agreement." The official added that if Iranian actions cause U.S. casualties, Trump would consider terminating the ceasefire.

Hope for Israel-Lebanon ceasefire emerges, but uncertainties remain

According to Xinhua News Agency, the United States, Israel, and Lebanon concluded their fourth round of high-level trilateral talks in Washington, D.C. on the 3rd. In a joint statement, the three parties announced that as a result of U.S.-led negotiations, Israel and Lebanon had agreed to implement a ceasefire, but only if Hezbollah completely stops firing and withdraws armed personnel from southern Lebanon south of the Litani River.

Analysts believe that the ceasefire statement was the result of U.S. efforts with Israel to further negotiations with Iran, and in the short term Israel may scale back military operations in Lebanon. However, given that the Lebanese government has difficulty truly restraining Hezbollah, and Israel maintains a need for military pressure on Hezbollah, whether the ceasefire can be implemented remains uncertain.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the background for Israel and Lebanon reaching this conditional ceasefire consensus is that Israel's recent escalation of military actions in Lebanon has caused setbacks in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Iran set a ceasefire in the Lebanon direction as a precondition for reaching an agreement with the United States. However, in the past week, Israel has intensified its offensive in Lebanon on the grounds that Hezbollah "violated the ceasefire agreement," even threatening attacks on Beirut. In response, on the 1st, Iran announced it would suspend dialogue with the U.S., threaten to completely blockade the Strait of Hormuz, and open a new front at the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

Congressional pressure heats up, anti-war voices emerge within the Republican Party

At the same time, Trump is facing increasing opposition from Congress at home.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the U.S. House of Representatives on the 3rd passed a resolution restricting the president's war powers, requiring Trump to end military operations against Iran, and to gain Congressional authorization for any future military action against Iran. Since the U.S., in concert with Israel, began military actions against Iran at the end of February, this is the fourth draft resolution on limiting presidential war powers to be put to a vote by the House and the first time such a resolution has been passed.

On the 4th, President Trump posted on social media that members of the House of Representatives who voted on the 3rd to restrict his war powers were "unpatriotic." He said that in order to limit his "war powers," 4 Republican House members and all Democrats voted in favor. He considered the vote, which took place as the U.S. and Iran were holding final talks to end the conflict, to be a "meaningless" one.

The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market is at a crossroads, determined by multiple variables: the success or failure of U.S.-Iran negotiations, the fragile balance of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, and domestic political constraints on the president's war powers, all of which will shape its future direction.

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