Oil prices have risen for six consecutive times, and this time Trump’s “drawing the line” has failed.
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Trump’s social media outbursts seem to be flipping over his own negotiating table.
On Friday, April 24, oil prices rose for the sixth consecutive trading day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to around $97 a barrel, while Brent crude climbed to near $106 a barrel in early trading, bringing the week’s total gain to about 16%. The core logic behind this round of increases is simple: prospects for U.S.-Iranian negotiations have again been cast into doubt, and the market is beginning to price in a more prolonged standoff.
According to the latest media reports, a series of posts by Trump on Truth Social, as well as his ongoing promotion of a maritime blockade of Iranian ports, are damaging negotiations being conducted through intermediaries such as Pakistan—so said two U.S. officials familiar with the situation. Iranian negotiators also believe these posts are intended to humiliate Tehran’s leadership, making them less willing to reach an agreement.
Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President of BOK Financial Securities, said: “Tensions are continuing to tighten—the market is now pricing in a more intense and prolonged standoff.”
Trump’s Posts Become Negotiation “Stumbling Blocks”
In his posts, Trump wrote: “Iran doesn’t want to close the Strait of Hormuz—they want it open so they can make $500 million a day.” He also said Iran’s new president is “far less radical, much smarter than the previous one.”
Iranian Speaker of Parliament and Chief Negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf characterized these posts as “media warfare and public opinion manipulation.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Wednesday that Iran welcomes negotiations with the U.S., but “blockade and threats are the main obstacles to real talks.”
To this, an unnamed White House spokesperson responded: “President Trump has no intention of protecting the Iranian leadership’s face. He takes negotiations seriously, with the goal of ensuring America’s long-term national security.”
Alex Vatanka, senior Iran analyst at the Middle East Institute, stated bluntly, “Trump’s way of posting is undermining his own hopes for diplomacy. With a regime like Iran’s, an effective approach is quiet and low key, not high profile, not in the media, not attacking Iran’s leadership on social media.”
Advisory Team Divisions Emerge
As Trump continues expressing himself on social media, the media quoted U.S. officials saying clear divisions have surfaced within his advisory team’s strategy.
One faction believes the blockade should be maintained to buy time. Their reasoning: Iran, unable to export oil as normal, will see its storage overflow in weeks, forcing it to make bigger concessions. For this side, Trump’s social media posts are a tool to “run out the clock.”
On Thursday in the Oval Office, Trump agreed with this view, telling reporters he’s in no rush for a deal: “You know who’s feeling the time pressure? They are. Because if their oil stops moving, their whole oil infrastructure will ‘explode’—they’ll have nowhere to store it.”
The other faction takes the opposite view, seeing now as the time to seek a solution. They worry that a prolonged disruption to Hormuz will severely hurt the U.S. economy via high oil prices and may trigger political backlash in the November midterm elections. For this side, Trump’s tough rhetoric may be undermining progress negotiators have already made.
What’s Blocking the Negotiations
The U.S. and Iran remain at a stalemate on several core issues, including Iran’s nuclear capabilities and Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
According to summaries from CCTV News and Xinhua, the U.S. and Iran ceasefire agreement only took effect just over two weeks ago, with the first round of talks having been held in mid-April in Pakistan, ending with no result. This week, Iran refused to send a delegation for the second round of talks in Islamabad; U.S. Vice President JD Vance was prepared to lead the delegation, but the trip was ultimately canceled. Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire on Monday, but negotiations remain stalled.
Iran’s demands include: lifting sanctions, negotiation guarantees limiting its nuclear and missile programs, security assurances against further military strikes, and some form of official control over Strait of Hormuz shipping. The U.S. and Israel have already made it clear they reject the last two demands.
Bloomberg reported last week that some Gulf Arab states and European leaders believe it will take at least six months to reach an agreement on broader issues. At present, all sides are considering one possibility: first reaching an interim agreement to reopen the Strait and end the blockade, leaving remaining disputes for future talks.
At present, passage through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly at a standstill, with only occasional movement of Iranian-linked vessels. On Thursday, the U.S. military boarded a supertanker in the Indian Ocean carrying Iranian oil, further strengthening the maritime blockade. At the same time, on Wednesday, Iran opened fire on vessels and seized two ships.
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