Oil prices rose over 2% intraday; report: Trump privately considers withdrawing from the USMCA.

According to media reports, US President Trump is said to be privately consulting advisors to assess the possibility of withdrawing from the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. This development injects significant uncertainty into renegotiations that are at a critical stage between the US, Canada, and Mexico, casting a shadow over the future of an agreement covering about $2 trillion in trade and services. According to CCTV News, on December 3, 2025, US President Trump stated that either the USMCA would expire and lapse, or a new agreement would be reached with Mexico and Canada. In addition, Trump said that Mexico and Canada have been taking advantage of the US, while tariffs have brought wealth to America. Sources told the media that Trump has asked his aides why the US should not withdraw from the agreement, although he has not yet given a direct signal to exit. White House officials responded that Trump is the ultimate decision-maker and is always committed to securing better deals for the American people; any discussion of potential action is purely speculative before the president makes an official announcement. Meanwhile, officials from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s office stated that simply approving the 2019 terms does not serve the national interest, and the administration intends to keep all of Trump’s options open to address outstanding issues. Currently, negotiations are showing signs of division. In an interview, Jamieson Greer pointed out that talks will be conducted bilaterally. He described the Mexican side as “quite pragmatic” at the moment, while dialogue with Canada is "more challenging." This suggests that with the July 1 mandatory review deadline approaching, trade relations among the three countries are becoming increasingly complex. Any move to withdraw from the agreement would shake the foundation of one of the world’s largest trading relationships. Even the threat of withdrawal is enough to make investors and global leaders uneasy. If the agreement collapses, not only will tariff barriers be reinstated and inflationary pressures intensify, but efforts to integrate North American supply chains over the past three decades could be undone, resulting in economic ripple effects ahead of the midterm elections that pose a severe challenge for Republicans. As a result, oil prices surged more than 2% in intraday trading. Review Deadline Approaching and Bilateral Game The USMCA faces a mandatory review scheduled for July 1, a process originally seen as routine, but now evolved into contentious negotiations. If all three countries agree to renew, the agreement will continue for another 16 years; if consensus cannot be reached, a ten-year annual review mechanism will be triggered, expiring in 2036. Any member country can notify its withdrawal six months in advance. Officials from Jamieson Greer’s office said that if a solution incorporating the opinions of industry stakeholders can be reached, Greer will recommend renewing the agreement. Potential areas of focus include strengthening the rules of origin for key industrial products, deepening cooperation in critical minerals, enhancing worker protections, and anti-dumping measures. Trump has demanded further concessions from Ottawa and Mexico City beyond trade, pressing for resolutions to issues such as immigration, drug trafficking, and defense. He has publicly expressed a desire to see Canada and Mexico thrive but has bluntly stated, "The problem is we don’t need their products," and has indicated a preference for bilateral agreements in negotiations. Canada Faces a “More Challenging” Situation Recently, Trump has increased pressure on Canada and Mexico, especially targeting Canada. According to Xinhua News Agency, he has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods; if Canada does not approve certain Gulfstream jets, he will raise tariffs on Canadian airplanes to 50%. He also refused to open a new bridge linking Ontario and Michigan. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he had an “active” conversation with Trump on Tuesday, discussing threats over the bridge and the USMCA review. However, bilateral relations remain tense. Last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Carney called for medium-sized countries to forge new ties to resist economic coercion by superpowers and referred to the old rules-based international order as “fiction,” a remark that angered Trump. Additionally, Trump’s comments about NATO troops not being on the front lines in Afghanistan have provoked public resentment in Canada, with some Canadians boycotting US products in response. By contrast, the US trade representative believes the Mexican side is more pragmatic in negotiations, though Trump has also vowed to slap tariffs on Mexican goods shipped to Cuba. Tariff Risks and Inflation Concerns If the US exits USMCA, immediate economic pain could ensue, as more Mexican and Canadian exports face higher US tariffs. Currently, with the exception of certain vehicles, most goods traded under the agreement are exempt from Trump’s global tariffs. According to 2024 trade data, Mexico and Canada are America’s two biggest trading partners and largest buyers of US goods. US business groups and lawmakers are almost certain to oppose withdrawal. The prospect of higher tariffs would worsen inflation and affordability issues—a sensitive topic ahead of the November midterm elections. If withdrawal prompts retaliation from Canada and Mexico, it could undermine Trump’s campaign promises to boost US exports. Trump’s Negotiation Strategy and Attitude Trump often seeks the advice of key aides on various issues; such inquiries reflect his thinking but do not necessarily indicate final action. It is currently unclear whether Trump will publicly threaten to exit or formally issue a warning. Analysts believe that if he takes this step, it is likely to be used as leverage for a better deal, rather than a genuine intent to leave the agreement. Although Trump was a negotiator of the agreement, his view of North American trade relations has changed. Media reports say that during a visit to a Ford factory near Detroit, he called the agreement “irrelevant,” though he did not explicitly state he would withdraw. This unpredictability has become a hallmark of Trump’s second term, making it difficult for global leaders to anticipate his moves. Despite threatening tariffs on North American steel and aluminum, he has shown a willingness to keep much of USMCA intact, particularly the tariff exemption mechanism that followed warnings from the auto industry. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks, and investment must be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the individual investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of specific users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and at your own risk.