Oil prices will be adjusted tonight! NDRC: The state is implementing temporary controls on refined oil prices.

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Driven by the sharp rise in international crude oil prices caused by escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict, the National Development and Reform Commission announced temporary control measures on domestic refined oil prices. The price adjustment this time is lower than the value calculated by the pricing mechanism to ease the impact of abnormal oil price rises on downstream users.

According to the announcement from the NDRC, starting from 24:00 on March 23, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel will rise by 1,160 yuan and 1,115 yuan per ton respectively. Based on the current pricing mechanism, domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard) on March 23 should have risen by 2,205 yuan and 2,120 yuan per ton respectively, but after the adjustment, they will actually rise by 1,160 yuan and 1,115 yuan.

The adjustment aims to "reduce the burden on downstream users and ensure stable economic operation and people's livelihood." The NDRC also stated it will guide refined oil manufacturers and sales enterprises to fully organize production and transportation, guarantee market supply, and cooperate with relevant departments to intensify market supervision and inspection, severely punish illegal activities such as non-compliance with national price policies.

Background: Middle East situation drives sharp oil price increase

The NDRC pointed out that since the last round of refined oil price adjustments on March 9, as the US-Israel-Iran conflict intensified, international crude oil prices have risen sharply, especially crude oil prices in the Middle East repeatedly hit historical highs.

According to CCTV News, the Middle East geopolitical situation has remained tense recently, and concerns about reduced crude oil supply have continued to intensify, keeping international oil prices strong in the high range. Analysts noted that obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz has created a supply gap in the international crude market, and Brent crude oil futures have already crossed $100 per barrel.

Professional monitoring models show that as of the close on March 19 (the 9th working day of this pricing cycle), the reference crude oil change rate has reached 45.21%, corresponding to an increase of about 2,000 yuan/ton in domestic refined oil retail prices, far exceeding the 50 yuan/ton adjustment threshold requirement.

Wholesale prices rise significantly, market reacts

During this pricing cycle, domestic refined oil wholesale market prices have seen significant increases. Professional monitoring data shows that as of March 19, the average domestic market price of 92-octane gasoline was 9,479 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.8% from the last pricing cycle; diesel averaged 7,977 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.9% from the previous cycle.

Analysts express that the concerns about shortages in the domestic crude oil market persist, with large state-owned enterprises prioritizing domestic retail supply, pushing refined oil wholesale prices noticeably higher.

Before the implementation of the temporary control measures, multiple netizens reported receiving SMS notifications about the oil price increase, with expectations of a significant rise.

Impact: 92-octane gasoline may enter “9-yuan era”

Although the NDRC's temporary controls reduced the range of increase, the adjustment will still have a direct impact on end consumers.

Analysts previously estimated based on mechanism-calculated values that if this round’s increase reached 2,200 yuan/ton, in terms of price per liter, 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0 diesel would be raised by 1.73 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 1.87 yuan per liter respectively. At that point, domestic 92-octane gasoline would fully enter the “9-yuan era,” with private car owners paying about 86.5 yuan more for a full 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline.

According to the NDRC announcement, the actual adjustment is lower than the estimated values above, but it still marks the most significant increase since 2026. Since 2026, domestic refined oil retail limit prices have been adjusted five times, presenting a “four rises, one pause” trend; domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 1,160 yuan and 1,120 yuan per ton respectively compared to the end of 2025.

Looking ahead, analysts say that in the short term, with continued geopolitical disruption, international crude oil prices will likely remain high. The NDRC also emphasized in its announcement that this temporary control measure is a “staged arrangement under the current pricing mechanism framework,” and the pricing mechanism framework itself has not changed.

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