"Old holders" are selling off, "new money" is shrinking, and Bitcoin is struggling to find support.

Long-term Bitcoin holders are continuously selling, while the market’s capacity to absorb these sales is rapidly shrinking. This supply-demand imbalance has caused the cryptocurrency market to undergo a slow yet sustained decline. Since hitting an all-time high of $126,000 this January, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30%, currently hovering around $85,000, struggling to find effective support.

According to a Bloomberg report on Thursday, blockchain data shows that so-called “OG” Bitcoin holders—those who have held their coins for years—are cashing out at the fastest rate seen in years. K33 Research reports that since early 2023, at least 1.6 million Bitcoins that hadn’t moved for two years have been reactivated, worth about $140 billion. In 2025 alone, nearly $300 billion in Bitcoins that had been dormant for over a year returned to circulation. Data from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows that the past 30 days have marked one of the most intense periods of long-term holder selling in over five years.

Meanwhile, the source of demand that absorbed this selling pressure over the past year is fading. ETF flows have turned negative, derivatives trading volume has plunged, and retail participation has visibly decreased. The same supply is now falling on a more fragile market with fewer active buyers.

This pressure has become especially pronounced since October 10. At that time, President Trump made unexpected remarks about punitive tariffs, triggering $19 billion in liquidations and marking the largest single-day leveraged wipeout in crypto history. Since then, traders have fled the derivatives market, with no sign of a significant rebound to date.

Selling Pressure Encounters a Liquidity Vacuum

Chris Newhouse, research director at decentralized finance-focused Ergonia, notes that the market is experiencing a slow bleed characterized by ongoing spot sell-offs meeting weak buy-side liquidity, resulting in a gradual decline that is harder to reverse than leverage-driven crashes.

For most of the recent period, this selling was absorbed by demand from newly launched ETFs and influxes from crypto investment institutions. But now that demand has subsided. ETF flows have turned negative, derivatives trading has dropped, retail participation has thinned, and the market’s absorbing capacity has drastically weakened.

On Wednesday, Bitcoin briefly surged to $90,000, attributed by traders to mass short position liquidations, but quickly resumed its downward trend. The original cryptocurrency slipped back to the lower end of its post-October crash trading range, dropping as much as 2.8% to $85,278.

Second Largest “OG” Cash-Out in History

K33 Senior Analyst Vetle Lunde points out that the current selling wave is rarely seen in history. Unlike previous cycles, these reactivated Bitcoins are not driven by altcoin trading or protocol incentives, but by deep liquidity from U.S. ETFs and institutional demand, enabling OG holders to take profits at six-figure prices and markedly reduce ownership concentration. OG is a slang term used by crypto enthusiasts to describe early adopters and investors.

He notes that liquidation amounts this year and last represent the second and third largest activation of long-term holder supply in Bitcoin’s history, trailing only 2017.

According to Coinglass, open interest in Bitcoin options and perpetual futures remains well below pre-October crash levels. This decline suggests that most traders are still sidelined, even though these products make up a major portion of crypto trading volume. Meanwhile, basis trading—a strategy where hedge funds profit from price differences between spot and futures markets—has also become unprofitable.

Selling Pressure May Be Nearing an End

Despite the heavy selling pressure, Lunde believes the long-term holder sell-off may be approaching its end. Based on historical on-chain flow analysis, this reactivation is nearing a threshold.

"Looking ahead, the selling pressure from long-term holders seems closer to saturation, with about 20% of Bitcoin supply reactivated in the past two years," Lunde wrote. "We expect OG sell-offs to wane by 2026, as Bitcoin pivots toward net buyer demand amid deeper institutional integration, with two-year supply starting to rise."

However, before that, Bitcoin still faces the real test of supply-demand imbalance. With new demand yet to emerge, whether the market can find stable support at current prices remains unknown.

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