On days without the "Nonfarm Payrolls" report, the "ADP report" becomes the market's "only focus."

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In the absence of official U.S. employment data, the usual "appetizer"—the "mini non-farm"—has unexpectedly become the focus of the market.

Due to the U.S. government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is responsible for releasing the non-farm payroll report, has suspended operations, making it impossible for the official data scheduled for release on Friday to arrive as planned. As a result, all eyes in the market this Wednesday were on the private sector employment data released by ADP, commonly known as the "mini non-farm."

The ADP report shows that in September, private sector employment unexpectedly decreased by 32,000, far below market expectations. After the data was released, U.S. stock index futures fell slightly, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds once fell by 7 basis points. However, as skepticism about the data began to spread in the market, stocks rebounded and bond yields recovered part of their earlier losses.

This much-watched report ultimately brought more questions than answers to the market, making it even harder for investors to assess the state of the U.S. economy.

A Confusing Report

The ADP report caused market confusion in part due to its historical performance. Past records show that ADP data is not always accurate in predicting official non-farm payroll data. This month's report is even "more unusual" than usual.

It is understood that each year, ADP recalibrates its "National Employment Report" based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ "Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages" (QCEW) data, and this technical adjustment alone reduced the number of employed people by 43,000 under the same conditions.

This means the market should be cautious when interpreting the weak figures. At the same time, it reveals a deeper truth: private statistical data also relies on official data as a key source.

Private Data Cannot "Fly Solo"

Analysts point out that data collection is a difficult, labor-intensive, and costly task, and private data is not ready to independently shoulder the responsibility of guiding the market. As the ADP example shows, many private data providers and users need to use government data to fine-tune their models.

In recent years, high-frequency "alternative data" from private vendors has become a valuable resource, but it is usually only accessible to institutional investors like hedge funds and a few market columnists, rather than benefitting everyone equally. Even as data quality continues to improve, noise and high imperfection still remain.

More importantly, in areas such as public policy and academic research, due to the lack of sufficient profit motivation, the private sector cannot and will not play the role of data collector. For example, employment data for specific groups such as women or rural residents of the U.S.; this is precisely the value of official statistics.

Official Statistics Face Their Own Dilemma

Of course, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is not perfect either.

The agency has long faced underfunding, with its budget adjusted for inflation declining over the past dozen years—and facing possible further cuts in the 2026 budget. Budget and staffing constraints have forced it to take on more work with fewer resources, raising concerns among some users about data quality.

Last year, the agency was also criticized for unevenly disclosing real estate market data to a small group of "superusers."

At the same time, official statistical work is also facing political pressure. Previously, the Trump administration used a large preliminary benchmark revision of wage data as a reason for major reforms to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the dismissal of then-director Erika McEntarfer.

After the release of a poor employment report, Erika McEntarfer was dismissed via social media. Afterwards, the Trump administration nominated EJ Antoni from the Heritage Foundation as her successor, moves that undermined confidence in the agency.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks; investment needs to be prudent. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. If you invest accordingly, you do so at your own risk. ```