On its second day of listing, SpaceX rose nearly 20% again, with a valuation reaching 2.5 trillion dollars! Pay close attention to the next two days.

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On its second day of trading, SpaceX’s stock continued its strong momentum from the first day, pushing its market value past the $2.5 trillion mark and officially becoming one of the world’s top six publicly listed companies by market capitalization. This unprecedented super IPO, together with the extremely low initial free float, is bringing a rare chip game to global capital markets.

On Monday, SpaceX’s stock closed at $192.46, soaring nearly 20%, up more than 42% from its IPO price of $135, adding $412 billion to its market cap in one day.

After underwriters fully exercised the overallotment option (green shoe), the company raised a total of $86.2 billion, and net proceeds after underwriting fees amounted to $85.7 billion. This strong market performance not only directly boosted confidence in the AI sector that has driven market gains this year, but also set the stage for a valuation reset across all tech giants.

The market’s feverish demand made founder Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire, with a net worth over three times that of the world’s second richest man, Google co-founder Larry Page. This successful IPO largely eased Wall Street’s concerns about the market’s ability to absorb giant IPOs, and paved the way for potential public offerings this year by major AI competitors such as Anthropic and OpenAI.

However, despite the strong start and expectations of passive buying, market observers warn that the stock’s volatility will sharply increase in the coming months. In this meticulously designed capital feast by Wall Street, investors need to closely watch two crucial time points coming in July; these involve the collision of massive passive funds and the chip vacuum period, and may even unveil a bigger merger chess game behind Musk’s business empire.

Retail Buying Frenzy and Macro Environment Resonance

In the first two trading days after listing, retail investors’ enthusiasm for going long was extremely high.

According to data from Vanda Research, the number of SpaceX shares bought by retail investors in the first two days is equivalent to all retail buying in the US stock market last week. Max Gokhman, Senior VP of Investment Solutions at Franklin Templeton, noted that a large pool of investors who previously lacked access to investment channels has accumulated off-market, so this huge initial demand is unsurprising.

Aside from micro-level capital inflow, macro geopolitical and liquidity factors also supported the skyrocketing share price.

With the US and Iran announcing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and expectations of the Federal Reserve potentially taking a more dovish stance under new chairman Kevin Warsh, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indexes recorded significant gains. Angelo Kourkafas, Senior Global Investment Strategist at Edward Jones, commented that the macro background is becoming more favorable, and falling yields may encourage investors to further expand along the risk curve.

July 7: Nasdaq Inclusion Collides With Extremely Low Float

As the feverish enthusiasm of the IPO’s early days gradually wanes, the market is about to hit its first highly valuable trading node: July 7.

Former Wall Street analyst Alexandra Mertz pointed out that the A shares issued by SpaceX this time account for only 4.3% of its total market value, meaning the initial free float after listing is extremely limited.

July 7 is the first trading day after Independence Day, and the 15th trading day post-listing, when Nasdaq 100 will officially include SpaceX. Bloomberg reports that index rebalancing prediction firm Intropic estimates that, due to plans for rapid inclusion, the proportion of free-floating shares held by passive investors is expected to surge to around 30% after 15 trading days.

At that point, giant index funds like Vanguard CRSP and FTSE Russell must passively build positions in the open market according to the free float adjustment mechanism. The estimated scale of this passive buying is between $8 billion and $18 billion. Since early shareholders are still in a lock-up period and cannot sell, market free float will drop to its lowest point.

Analysts warn that direct collision between US passive funds building positions and historic low float, amplified by AI model predictions, may see the stock price rise extremely during this period.

Late July: Real Selling Pressure and Institutional Baseline After Lock-Up Ends

The second time point that demands attention falls two working days after the Q2 earnings call, expected to be held in late July. Conventional IPO lock-ups use simple fixed terms, but SpaceX’s lock-up schedule is precisely tied to the Q2 earnings call.

Rumors suggest a massive unlock of up to 30% of early insider shares following the earnings call. But Alexandra Mertz clarifies that about 50% of these insider shares belong to Musk, who, as founder, is subject to an absolute 366-day lock period. Thus, the real potential new unlock in the public market is only 10% to 15%.

More importantly, early major shareholders’ intent to sell is extremely low.

Famed investor Ron Baron has stated he will not sell and plans to buy another $1 billion on the open market, while BlackRock also publicly expressed intentions to buy between $5 billion and $10 billion. As Matt Kennedy, Senior Strategist at Renaissance Capital, said, the stock has been “priced to near perfection,” and when retail demand’s rocket booster falls away and the price faces selling pressure from institutional investors and employees unlocking shares, marginal buyers will become crucial.

Capital Chess Game: $7 Billion Tax Event and Reciprocal Merger Speculation

Behind the sophisticated IPO arrangements, Wall Street is closely tracking Musk’s personal financial timetable.

Musk must exercise his 2018 Tesla compensation stock options before August 15 this year, which will trigger a huge personal tax event of up to $7 billion. Before this crucial date, the higher the share price among his assets, the more advantageous for net share settlement or pledge loans.

Market analysts theorize a ‘Goldilocks scenario’: in the window after July 7’s index buying pushes SpaceX stock to a peak, and before the late July earnings unlock brings fresh shares, SpaceX and Tesla might announce a reciprocal merger via stock-for-stock swap. Through this arbitrage mechanism in the open market, Musk's tax funding pressure would be perfectly alleviated.

This speculation also seems hinted at in SpaceX’s underwriter list. This IPO unusually brought in Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan as core underwriters. Market watchers believe allotting these institutions, who once voted against Tesla's compensation plan, massive IPO fees might aim to win their yes votes in Tesla's potential merger ballot at the November shareholders meeting.

Additionally, SpaceX’s governance structure in its prospectus offers logical backing for this potential merger.

SpaceX's B shares hold 10x super voting rights, and all shareholder litigation must be settled through private arbitration, building a perfect “founder’s defense fortress” for Musk. Analysts believe merging Tesla into SpaceX under such legal structure fundamentally protects Musk’s business empire from activist investors and local courts — the ultimate capital solution.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks and investment must be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users’ specific investment goals, financial conditions, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their particular situation. Invest accordingly, at your own risk. ```