On Saturday, only "four ships" passed through the Strait of Hormuz via the "Iranian corridor," including two LPG vessels bound for India.

The Middle East conflict has entered its second month. The Strait of Hormuz remains severely obstructed, with the number of transiting vessels only a tiny fraction of pre-war levels. At the same time, Iran is gradually strengthening its control over this globally critical energy corridor.

According to media-compiled ship tracking data, only four ships were observed leaving the Persian Gulf on Saturday, March 28, all traveling along the northern route of the narrow channel between Larak Island and Qeshm Island, hugging the Iranian coastline, with destinations in India and Pakistan.

These developments indicate the existence of an officially recognized route. Tehran is further tightening its control over the strait. The Iranian parliament is currently reviewing a draft proposal to charge fees on vessels seeking safe passage.

According to CCTV News, on March 28, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar said that the Iranian government has agreed to allow an additional 20 Pakistani vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with two ships permitted daily going forward.

Although Iran has relaxed its stance in negotiations with multiple countries, achieving a certain breakthrough diplomatically, the overall volume of passage has not yet shown a significant recovery. While these developments are meaningful signals for the market, the actual level of shipping restoration remains limited.

Transit volume shrinks drastically, northern route becomes only visible channel

According to media ship tracking data, on the morning of March 28, two LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) ships bound for India departed the Persian Gulf. In addition, two bulk carriers were observed crossing these waters, heading to Pakistan and India respectively. All these vessels used the northern route between Larak Island and Qeshm Island. No inbound vessels were observed in the morning. On Friday, only one Iranian oil tanker and one bulk carrier destined for an Iranian port completed inbound transit, also via the northern route.

The media points out that ongoing electronic interference in the region is affecting the accuracy of ship tracking systems, with some vessels voluntarily turning off their AIS transponders in high-risk waters, further reducing the timeliness and reliability of the data. As ships can sail without sending location signals, the actual transit numbers may be higher than the currently visible figures, and the data could be revised upward as delayed signals arrive.

According to Tankertrackers.com data, during the first 23 days of March, Iranian-related crude oil tankers continuously traversed the Strait of Hormuz while their transponders were off, with an average daily flow of about 1.6 million barrels.

Diplomatic mediation achieves breakthrough, full recovery remains a challenge

The Iranian parliament is drafting a bill intended to impose passage fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, further strengthening its sovereignty claim over this strategic waterway.

Diplomatically, multiple countries have sought bilateral passage arrangements with Iran. Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar stated that Iran has agreed to allow an additional 20 Pakistani vessels and to establish a routine mechanism allowing two vessels daily. He described this move as “positive and constructive,” helpful in promoting regional stability. Thailand and Malaysia previously announced they had received similar assurances.

However, overall transit data shows that these bilateral arrangements have yet to bring about a substantive recovery in shipping through the strait. The status of passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below pre-war normal levels.

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