On the eve of the largest IPO in history, some of Space X's financial data has leaked, showing a very high profit margin.

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SpaceX is paving the way for a potential trillion-dollar IPO, with some financial data beginning to leak out, showing the space company’s profitability far exceeds market expectations, especially the impressive profit margins of its core business Starlink.

According to Barron’s, SpaceX is holding meetings with aerospace and technology analysts in Boca Chica, Texas, and some financial data has leaked as a result.

Data shows SpaceX’s total revenue in 2025 is about $16 billion, which is expected to grow to around $25 billion in 2026; Starlink’s EBITDA margin exceeds 60%, higher than the previously expected 50% level.

The release of this data provides important reference for evaluating SpaceX’s IPO valuation of up to $2 trillion. SpaceX’s IPO registration files are expected to be submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) within days or weeks, with the listing process accelerating. SpaceX has not commented on the data above.

Starlink’s profitability exceeds expectations

Starlink is the highlight of the financial data. According to leaked information, Starlink’s EBITDA margin exceeds 60%, higher than Barron’s previous forecast of 50%, and clearly higher than typical levels in aerospace and defense—the comparable company TransDigm’s EBITDA margin is about 50%.

Based on this, Starlink’s EBITDA in 2025 is close to $7 billion. Starlink currently operates more than 11,000 satellites in low Earth orbit, providing space broadband services, with over 9 million paying users by the end of 2025, expected to grow to about 12 million by the end of 2026.

SpaceX invests the substantial cash flow generated by Starlink into the development of projects such as Starship. Starship is a fully reusable rocket, designed to reduce the cost of entering space by up to 90%.

Balance sheet reveals hidden details

The financial data also reveals some details of SpaceX’s balance sheet. As of the end of 2025, the company holds about $25 billion in cash, but also carries about $50 billion in liabilities, the latter slightly above market expectations.

However, most of the $50 billion in liabilities come from xAI—Musk’s artificial intelligence company, which SpaceX essentially completed the acquisition of in February this year. xAI is investing heavily in building data centers and previously merged with X (formerly Twitter), which was heavily indebted.

Additionally, part of SpaceX’s liabilities relate to prepayments for launch services, which are essentially customer prepaid cash and not traditional debt.

IPO Valuation Logic: Betting on Space AI

The upper limit of SpaceX’s IPO valuation reaches $2 trillion, and whether this can be achieved largely depends on whether Musk can persuade analysts to believe in the commercial prospects of “space AI data centers.”

Musk hopes to raise funds through the IPO, partly to support space-based AI computing operations, expecting the cost to be lower than ground-based data centers in a few years. Whether this narrative convinces the capital market will be a key factor in determining the final valuation.

At the corporate governance level, Musk is expected to retain full control of SpaceX through a dual-class share structure. This arrangement is not surprising—Musk has long been strengthening his control of Tesla, and it has never been expected that he would yield control of SpaceX.

With analyst briefings underway, the formal public submission of SpaceX’s IPO registration files may not be far off.

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