"On the first day of the 'ceasefire', a test was encountered: Israel attacked Lebanon, and the Strait of Hormuz was closed again."

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The ink on the US-Iran ceasefire agreement has barely dried, and the situation in the Middle East has already begun to heat up again. Israel launched a large-scale airstrike against Lebanon, while Iran announced the suspension of oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic chokepoint closely tied to nerves in the global energy market.

The core dispute over the ceasefire agreement lies in its scope of applicability: Iran insists that the conflict in Lebanon and involving Hezbollah should be covered by the ceasefire, while the US and Israel have clearly stated that Lebanon is not included in the agreement. This fundamental disagreement brought the ceasefire agreement to a severe test on its very first day of implementation.

According to a Xinhua report on April 9, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that three of the ten ceasefire clauses proposed by Iran had already been violated, and before negotiations even started, "the basis for negotiations has been blatantly undermined."

Israel’s airstrikes on Lebanon have caused significant casualties and rapidly worsened the situation. According to data from the Lebanese civil defense authorities cited by Xinhua, the airstrikes have resulted in at least 254 deaths and 1,165 injuries. Oil prices had previously fallen sharply on news of a ceasefire, with Brent crude dropping as much as 13% to $94.50 per barrel, but the news of disrupted passage through the Strait of Hormuz has caused market expectations to shift once again.

Dispute Over Agreement Scope: Is Lebanon Included in the Ceasefire Framework?

The scope of the ceasefire agreement has become the central point of contention, with noticeable discrepancies in statements from the US and Iran.

According to Xinhua, on the 8th, Trump stated in an interview with PBS that Lebanon is not included in the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, saying "that is a separate conflict," and that Hezbollah in Lebanon is not within the ceasefire scope, "this issue will be resolved later." On the same day, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement backing Trump’s decision for a two-week ceasefire with Iran, but declared that the ceasefire does not include Lebanon.

However, Iran’s position is the opposite. According to Xinhua, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on social media that the ceasefire terms between the US and Iran are "clear and explicit," and that the US must choose between a ceasefire and "continuing the war through Israel," as "both are not possible." Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei cited Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz’s statement that ending military operations in Lebanon is a crucial part of the US-Iran ceasefire and that Israel’s airstrikes are a "blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement," emphasizing that "the US government bears direct responsibility."

According to the Financial Times, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz previously announced that Iran, the US, and their respective allies had agreed to an immediate ceasefire in all regions, including Lebanon. This directly contradicts US statements, further intensifying confusion about the content of the agreement.

Iranian Speaker Lists Three Violations, Casting Shadow Over Negotiation Prospects

According to Xinhua, on the 8th, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf released a statement on social media listing the ceasefire clauses Iran believes have been violated.

The three breaches listed by Ghalibaf are: First, achieving a ceasefire in Lebanon—Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz previously announced that all parties had agreed to an immediate ceasefire in all regions including Lebanon, but Israel immediately launched large-scale airstrikes against Lebanon; Second, prohibiting infringement of Iranian airspace—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that day intercepted and shot down a drone over Lar, Fars Province; Third, accepting Iran’s uranium enrichment activities—the US insists Iran must give up uranium enrichment, which Iran believes is contrary to the spirit of the agreement.

In his strongly worded statement, Ghalibaf declared Iran’s "deep-rooted" distrust of the US stems from the US repeatedly violating various forms of commitments, "regrettably, this has happened again."

Meanwhile, according to Xinhua, on the 8th, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that the first round of US-Iran talks will take place on the morning of the 11th (local time) in Islamabad, Pakistan. She also stated that the US is accepting a new, revised Iranian proposal, not the original terms presented by Tehran. According to earlier Iranian media reports, Ghalibaf will lead the Iranian delegation, while the US team will be led by Vice President Vance, although sources say Iran's chief negotiator has not been finally confirmed.

Vance: Israel Will Show Restraint, Hormuz Commitments Must Be Honored

Amid escalating tensions, US Vice President Vance sought to endorse the ceasefire agreement’s stability while issuing warnings to Iran.

According to CCTV News, on the 8th in Budapest, Vance said Iran believed the ceasefire included Lebanon, "but that is not the case," and the US "never made such a promise." He further revealed that Israel has indicated a willingness to "show restraint" in Lebanon to ensure the "current negotiations succeed."

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Vance took a clear stance. He stated that Iran has committed to reopening the Strait, and if Iran fails to fulfill its promise to reopen it, the ceasefire agreement will end and Iran will face "serious consequences."

However, according to the Financial Times, White House Press Secretary Leavitt denied reports that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed, calling such reports "untrue" and stating "traffic through the strait has increased today." This contradicts Iranian state media reports about suspending tanker passage, and uncertainty over the actual situation persists in the markets.

Multiple Pressures Cast Doubt on Ceasefire Sustainability

Israel’s military actions have not only angered Iran but have also raised widespread international concern.

According to Xinhua, on the 8th, French President Macron spoke separately by phone with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Trump, calling on all parties in conflict zones—including Lebanon—to fully uphold ceasefire clauses, stressing "a credible and lasting ceasefire requires a cessation of hostilities in all regions." Macron also spoke with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, strongly condemning Israel’s "indiscriminate airstrikes" on Lebanon, calling them a "direct threat to the ceasefire's sustainability."

According to the Financial Times, a senior commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Iran is "preparing to respond" to Israel’s attacks. Aerospace commander Majid Mousavi posted on social media, "Aggression against Hezbollah is aggression against Iran," and that Iranian forces are preparing a "heavy response."

According to Xinhua, Iranian military sources indicated that, in view of Israel’s persistent breaches of the ceasefire in Lebanon and against Hezbollah, Iran is preparing deterrence measures against Israeli military targets. The source also said that Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon in spite of the ceasefire "either show that the US cannot control the Netanyahu government or that Israel has American acquiescence."

Against this backdrop, whether the first round of US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on the 11th will go ahead as planned, and whether substantive progress can be achieved before the dispute over the agreement's scope is resolved, remain key variables closely watched by the market.

Risk warning and disclaimerMarkets are risky; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the special investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their particular circumstances. Any investment made accordingly is at your own risk. ```