Once poised to become the Director of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics! Trump ally "speaks frankly": The U.S. economy can't withstand $100 oil prices.

A conservative economist who was once nominated by Trump to lead the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has publicly warned that the American economy is too fragile to withstand the shock of oil prices rising to $100 per barrel, and that the Iran war is making this risk a reality.

On Thursday, EJ Antoni, chief economist at the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, said bluntly in an interview with the Financial Times, "I don't think the economy can withstand $100 oil; it just can't." He added, "The economy is weaker than we thought, and inflation is more severe than we realized."

This statement was made on the eve of the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting. Antoni also warned that the decline in energy prices in 2025 once put downward pressure on overall prices, while the current reversal of rising energy prices will exert upward pressure on economy-wide prices.

Antoni's remarks came as U.S. economic data continues to weaken and energy prices soar, sparking growing concerns within the Republican Party about the prospects of the upcoming midterm elections. Brent crude oil jumped 5% in a single day on Wednesday, approaching $110 per barrel, while U.S. retail gasoline prices soared from $2.92 per gallon a month ago to $3.84, with diesel breaking $5, placing heavy pressure on consumers and businesses.

Economic Fundamentals: Data Continues to Disappoint

Antoni's warning is not without basis; a series of economic data had already shown signs of weakness before the outbreak of war.

Last week's figures showed that U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 was sharply revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%; Wednesday's data showed wholesale prices in February rose more than expected, even though the U.S. and Israel had not yet started military operations against Iran. Meanwhile, the net decrease in U.S. jobs last month was 92,000, nearly erasing all the gains from January.

Antoni attributes part of the weakness in the job market to last year's federal government layoffs, and highlights the "lackluster job growth" as a structural issue in the current economy.

Political Pressure: Republicans Worried About the Midterm Elections

The rapid rise in energy prices is becoming a tangible political risk. According to the Financial Times, concerns within the Republican Party that high oil prices may drag down midterm election prospects are growing day by day.

Meanwhile, internal divisions triggered by the Iran war are beginning to surface. Just one day before Antoni made the above comments, the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center announced his resignation in protest, marking the first notable public departure within the Trump administration since the conflict began.

Antoni's public statements reflect the real worries within Trump's circle of allies regarding the current economic trajectory—under the triple pressures of war, inflation, and weak growth, those concerns are becoming increasingly difficult to conceal.

Nomination Turmoil: From BLS Director Candidate to Exit

Antoni's connection with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has had twists and turns.

Last August, after Trump dismissed the previous BLS director, he nominated Antoni to head this key statistical agency—Trump had earlier accused the previous director of "manipulating" the jobs report. However, only a month later, Trump suddenly withdrew Antoni's nomination and instead chose government economist Brett Matsumoto, whose appointment is still pending Senate approval.

Antoni refused to disclose the details of how Trump informed him of the withdrawn nomination, only stating that he "would rather keep those conversations confidential."

Despite his exit, Antoni's criticism of the BLS remains unsoftened. He compared the agency to a "random number generator" and called for a "thorough top-down review" of its entire process from data collection, to data processing, to data release, citing past leaks—this January, Trump released December employment data several hours ahead of the official announcement.

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