Ongoing US-Iran conflict: Iran warns that any breach will be countered and refuses to actively seek negotiations; US military says it will strike for 90 minutes on Wednesday after blockade.
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On Wednesday, July 15th, there were no signs of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
On one hand, Iran has continued to release strong signals. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned that the preliminary ceasefire agreement, or memorandum of understanding, signed by the U.S. and Iran in June is only valuable if it aligns with Iran's national interests and security. If the U.S. violates its commitments, Iran will stop fulfilling the agreement and take countermeasures. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kalibabadi emphasized that Iran has never left the negotiating table; it was the U.S. that first tore up the agreement. Iran will never be the first to bow its head and request negotiations with the U.S.
On the other hand, the U.S. continues to ramp up military pressure. According to CCTV, the U.S. military stated on Wednesday that only 17 hours after resuming its maritime blockade of Iranian ports, it had forced two merchant ships attempting to break the blockade to change course. According to Xinhua News Agency, the U.S. military said on Wednesday that it had completed a round of "morning strikes" against Iran that day.
Previously, Xinhua quoted U.S. media reports from Tuesday stating that President Trump held a meeting at the White House to discuss expanding military operations against Iran. Before the meeting, he told U.S. media that military strikes against Iran would continue "until I say enough." Unless Iran returns to the negotiating table, the U.S. military will strike its bridges and power plants next week. Trump also stated that deploying ground troops to Iran was not ruled out.
In addition, according to CCTV on Wednesday, Trump recently said that the U.S. "may soon" strike "Pickaxe Mountain," one of Iran's most fortified underground nuclear facilities near the Natanz uranium enrichment facility.
Market participants believe that, as both sides escalate diplomatic and military stakes, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and risks to energy supplies in the Middle East remain core variables watched by global financial markets.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: U.S. tore up the memorandum first; Iran will never bow first and request negotiations
According to Xinhua, Iran's "Balance" News Agency reported on the 15th, citing the Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, that the Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding is only valuable to Iran if it upholds national interests and security.
The report said that Iran would fulfill its obligations provided the other side keeps its promises. If the other side breaches the agreement, Iran will stop fulfilling its obligations and take countermeasures when necessary.
This statement means that Tehran directly links continued fulfillment of the memorandum to subsequent U.S. actions, further strengthening its stance of "reciprocal response."
CCTV, citing Iranian media, reported that Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kalibabadi further escalated diplomatic rhetoric in an interview on the 14th.
He stated that Iran has never left the negotiating table; it was the U.S. that tore up the Islamabad memorandum of understanding. Iran will never be the first to bow its head and request negotiations with the U.S.
Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Kalibabadi also noted that whether ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz is not important to the U.S.; Trump himself has acknowledged this. However, the U.S. does not want Iran to have actual sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Recently, the Strait of Hormuz has become one of the most strategically central points in the U.S.-Iran standoff. The U.S. continues to strengthen its maritime military deployments, while Iran keeps emphasizing its leading role in the Strait's security affairs.
U.S. Forces Force Two Merchant Ships to Change Course 17 Hours After Resuming Maritime Blockade
Meanwhile, the U.S. military continues to exert pressure at sea.
According to CCTV, citing a statement from U.S. Central Command on the 15th, 17 hours after resuming the maritime blockade of Iranian ports, the U.S. military has already forced two merchant ships attempting to break the blockade to change their routes.
The U.S. side said the move aimed to cut off transportation activities related to Iranian ports and further limit Iran's seaborne logistics capabilities.
In addition, the U.S. military confirmed it carried out military strikes against Iranian targets on Wednesday.
According to Xinhua, on the 15th U.S. Central Command issued a statement on social media saying that at 7:30 a.m. EST (7:30 p.m. Beijing time) on the 15th, the U.S. military completed a round of "morning strikes" on Iran.
The strikes began at 6 a.m. EST on the 15th. The statement said that in a 90-minute operation, the U.S. carried out precision-guided strikes against coastal defense systems and cruise missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb Island. The airstrike "further weakened Iran's ability to attack merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz."
In addition, Xinhua quoted U.S. media reports from Tuesday that Trump held a meeting in the White House Situation Room on the 14th to discuss a large-scale attack plan against Iran, declaring "the scale will be broader than the current actions around the Strait of Hormuz."
Analysts believe that as the U.S. maintains military pressure and continues to signal possible expansion of strikes while Iran clearly states "breach will be countered" and refuses to resume talks proactively, both sides remain in a phase of simultaneous "military pressure + diplomatic confrontation" escalation in the short term.
Trump Threatens Possible Near-term Strike on “Pickaxe Mountain” Underground Nuclear Facility
Aside from tough diplomatic statements, Trump has continued to send signals of military escalation.
According to CCTV, Trump recently stated on a TV program that the U.S. "may soon" strike the "Pickaxe Mountain" underground nuclear facility near Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment facility.
Public information indicates that "Pickaxe Mountain" is located about 1.6 kilometers south of the Natanz nuclear facility. It has two large tunnel systems buried deep underground and is considered one of Iran's most fortified underground military installations.
Several military experts believe that the facility's depth far exceeds that of ordinary underground bunkers and it is designed to withstand high-intensity attacks, including those from the U.S.'s current heavy bunker-busting bombs. Therefore, it has long been regarded as one of the toughest nodes to destroy in Iran's nuclear program.
Trump's public mention of the facility is also seen as a significant signal of the U.S. further ramping up military deterrence.
For global markets, the security of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, oil supply, and developments in the Middle East remain key variables affecting oil prices and safe-haven assets in the near term.
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