Only 4 ships pass through in 24 hours! Hormuz continues “flow restrictions,” White House officials say an “alternative plan” to open the strait is already in place.

Only 4 ships pass through in 24 hours! Hormuz continues “flow restrictions,” White House officials say an “alternative plan” to open the strait is already in place.

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Since the U.S.-Iran conflict entered a “ceasefire window” on the morning of April 8 local time in Iran and the evening of April 7 Eastern U.S. time, the passage through the global energy lifeline—the Strait of Hormuz—has not seen significant improvement. Multiple sources show that despite ongoing diplomatic negotiations, the strait remains under strict “flow restrictions” and is still far from restoring normal shipping order.

While the ceasefire brings hope for easing the transit stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, the reality disclosed by Iranian media that only four vessels passed in the last 24 hours demonstrates that the strait is still far from normalcy. Amid political gamesmanship, military deterrence, and energy interests intertwining, this globally crucial energy corridor will likely remain in a “semi-open” state in the short term, forcing global markets to operate amid continuing uncertainty.

Only 10 vessels passed as of the 9th, no difference from pre-ceasefire levels

According to Xinhua, Iranian official media stated on their social platforms on Friday the 10th that only four vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the previous 24 hours, including one Iranian and one Russian oil tanker.

This data highlights that transit is virtually in a “frozen” state.

Meanwhile, shipping and tracking data also confirm the sluggish situation. U.S. media, citing ship tracking website MarineTraffic, analyzed that since the ceasefire agreement, only 19 vessels have passed the Strait of Hormuz—far below the pre-war normal, which exceeded 100 vessels daily.

Of the 19 vessels, only four were oil or chemical tankers; most others were bulk carriers, specialized in dry goods transport. Of these 19 vessels, three flew the Iranian flag.

Xinhua cited maritime data to say that as of April 9, only about ten ships had passed through the strait. Xinhua quoted Richard Meade, editor-in-chief at UK’s Lloyd’s List, stating that Hormuz’s shipping volume shows no difference from before the temporary ceasefire was announced by the U.S. and Iran.

However, some marginal recoveries in transport by certain countries have occurred, showing limited passage continues under specific coordination.

According to CCTV News, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar confirmed on Friday that of seven oil-carrying vessels bound for Malaysia, six have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The last vessel is in port for repairs due to mechanical failure.

White House Economic Adviser: Shipping may recover within two months

Facing shipping blockages, the U.S. government is intensifying diplomatic efforts and contingency plans.

According to Xinhua, Trump’s economic adviser and White House National Economic Council Director Hassett told U.S. media on Friday the 10th that the Strait of Hormuz may resume shipping over the next two months, emphasizing:

"We are very hopeful about this… If necessary, we also have backup plans."

Hassett also revealed that the U.S. has sent a team to Pakistan to negotiate with Iran.

Hassett said the White House is optimistic about achieving some form of “reconciliation and restoration of shipping” before June.

However, both U.S. domestic and external doubts persist. Media point out that while the U.S. has the military capability to “forcibly open the strait,” the political risks are very high, including possible escalation of conflict and domestic backlash.

Trump himself recently issued a warning to Iran demanding it neither charge fees nor interfere in vessel transit.

Iran maintains “flow restriction” control; ceasefire terms still disputed

Iran’s statements indicate that current “flow restriction” is not accidental but a policy arrangement.

Xinhua notes that before Iran-U.S. ceasefire talks began, Iran claimed multiple ceasefire conditions were violated, thus imposing “flow restriction” on the Strait of Hormuz.

In other words, as Iran believes several of its proposed ceasefire conditions were violated, it has proactively limited passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

This means the strait is not truly “open,” but remains in a “controlled transit” state with intense political maneuvering.

U.S. media analysis says control over the strait has become Iran’s core bargaining chip in ongoing negotiations; with continued deterrence of shipping using drones and other asymmetric methods, forcing commercial vessels to suspend passage.

Ongoing energy shock: supply gaps and price volatility

The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil shipments, and its restriction has deeply affected energy markets.

Media, citing analysis, state this round of conflict has blocked more than 20 million barrels per day of oil and refined products in the Gulf region, causing major impact on global markets.

Effects mentioned include a sharp rise in international oil prices; Asian buyers suffering direct shock, with Japan releasing more strategic oil reserves.

Meanwhile, U.S. refining margins have surged, reflecting structural opportunities from supply chain mismatch.

Summing up all sources, the future of the Strait of Hormuz presents three main scenarios:

  • Short term (a few weeks): Maintain “flow restriction + selective passage,” with slow recovery of shipping;
  • Medium term (1-2 months): If negotiations progress, partial restoration of normal shipping may follow, but with continued security checks or implicit restrictions;
  • Long term: Complete restoration of free transit depends on: de-escalation in U.S.-Iran relations; strait control arrangement; security assurance mechanisms.

At present, as the White House said, even restoration will require a time window; and Iran still holds key leverage, keeping the situation highly uncertain.

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