OPEC+ may end production cuts ahead of schedule on Sunday, with 1.65 million barrels per day of new supply about to arrive?
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OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday to discuss further production increases, marking that the organization may begin lifting the second phase of production cuts more than a year ahead of schedule as it seeks to regain market share.
On Wednesday, according to media reports citing informed sources, eight OPEC+ countries will hold an online meeting to decide on oil production for October. If the plan for further production increases is approved, OPEC+ will begin reversing about 1.65 million barrels per day of production cuts, equivalent to 1.6% of global demand, which is more than a year ahead of the original plan.
However, some analysts and OPEC+ sources say the group may pause the plan to increase production in October. No final decision has been made yet.
Oil prices remain relatively high despite OPEC+ production increases. On Wednesday, Brent crude slipped in the short term, trading near $68 per barrel, down more than 1% on the day but rebounding from its 2025 low of around $58 in April.
Production Increase Strategy Shifts to Market Share Competition, Production Cut Framework May Still Be Maintained
In recent years, OPEC+ has been supporting oil prices by reducing output, but this year it changed strategy to focus on expanding market share. This shift was partly driven by US President Trump’s call for OPEC to increase production to control gasoline prices.
The oil-producing coalition controls about half of the world’s oil production. At the last meeting in August, eight member countries increased September output by 547,000 barrels per day, starting to reverse the biggest round of production cuts in advance, including about 2.5 million barrels per day of separate increases by the UAE.
Despite considering further production increases, OPEC+’s overall production cut framework remains. The next phase of 1.65 million barrels per day of production cuts was originally scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026, and the collective 2 million barrels per day output cut by all members will also continue until the same period.
It is worth noting that the actual increase in production is often lower than the pledged amount, as some member countries need to compensate for previous excess output and others are limited by production capacity and find it difficult to significantly raise output.
OPEC headquarters and Saudi Arabian authorities have not yet responded to requests for comment on the planned meeting. The market will closely watch the outcome of Sunday's meeting, which will provide important guidance for global oil supply and price trends.
Current oil prices reflect market expectations of supply and demand balance. A decision for further production increases may put pressure on prices but can also help OPEC+ maintain its influence in the global energy market.
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