OPEC+ may finalize an expansion plan on Sunday, with several representatives expecting to resume the "modest increase" mode in April.

OPEC+ will hold a video conference this Sunday to review its production policy for April. Several representatives expect the organization to resume its "moderate and incremental" increase pace, gradually releasing more supply to the market amid resilient demand and strengthening oil prices. According to Bloomberg, multiple OPEC+ representatives who requested anonymity said that although the final course of action has yet to be decided before the meeting, they anticipate a series of moderate production increases starting in April. The market is focusing on whether production increases will dampen the recent rally in oil prices, or merely balance supply and demand with limited increments. Current oil price performance contrasts with expectations of "oversupply." Representatives pointed out that, despite widespread forecasts of a supply surplus this year, oil prices have still risen about 17%, which provides OPEC+ more room to resume production increases. However, uncertainty is rising. One official stated that an increase "may happen," but the decision remains unclear, as escalating conflict risk between the US and Iran casts a shadow on the outlook and may amplify oil price volatility. After the news was released, Brent oil prices remained around $70 per barrel. Meeting Focus: Whether to Resume "Incremental Increase" Starting April Bloomberg cited representatives as saying OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, plans to assess its April policy at Sunday's video conference, but has not yet reached consensus on the route. Most representatives’ baseline expectation is that the organization will return to a "cautious increase" strategy. Three officials expect a series of moderate production increases to resume from April. According to Bloomberg analysts, OPEC+ may increase daily output by about 137,000 barrels, roughly matching the "minimal increase" at the end of last year. This level means that even if production increases are implemented, their short-term impact on supply and demand will be more of a "calibration" than a "shift". The market will continue to focus on whether subsequent increases will continue and how fast the pace will be. Why Oil Prices Are Rising: Demand Resilience, Geopolitical Risks and Various Supply Disruptions Combined Although several prominent forecasting agencies warn of significant supply surplus this year, it has not noticeably suppressed oil prices so far. Bloomberg reports that one reason is the rise in geopolitical risks; the other is a series of production disruptions from North America to Kazakhstan, Russia, and other regions. Recent statements from industry companies have strengthened the view that "surplus is delayed." US shale oil producer Diamondback Energy said Monday that the "surplus wave" is being pushed into a later time frame. One of the world's largest oilfield service companies, Baker Hughes, expressed a similar view on Tuesday. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market involves risks, and investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider the individual investment goals, financial situations, or needs of specific users. Users should determine whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their particular circumstances. Investing based on this information is at your own risk.