OPEC+ may increase oil production again in October, Middle East tensions ease, WTI crude oil futures once fell 4%.

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Impacted by signs that OPEC+ may increase production again in October, oil prices tumbled on Monday, erasing last week’s gains.

WTI crude futures fell 4% intraday, marking the largest drop since June. At the close, WTI November crude futures fell $2.27, down 3.45%, to $63.45 per barrel. Brent November crude futures fell $2.16, down 3.08%, to $67.97 per barrel.

According to sources cited by the media, the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia is considering raising production at least above the planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day next month.

On the other hand, although this production increase may cause the already expected surplus market to once again have supply exceeding demand, this move will also raise concerns about whether the member countries' production capacity has reached its limits.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets wrote in a report: “We think the most likely outcome is that OPEC+ will again decide at the October 5 meeting to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Given that many oil-producing countries, except Saudi Arabia, have actually reached their capacity limits, future production increases by OPEC+ will be far lower than the officially announced figures.”

Although OPEC and its allies are trying to regain market share rather than maintain prices, crude oil is still expected to record monthly and quarterly gains. Geopolitical tensions have become a supportive factor for oil prices.

However, on Monday, geopolitical risks diminished somewhat. After a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and US President Trump at the White House, Trump announced that Israel has agreed to the US-proposed “20-point plan” to end the Gaza conflict. If the nearly two-year war in the Middle East—which accounts for about one-third of global oil supply—comes to an end, the “war premium” in oil prices may be partially erased.

As for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank said: “Major institutions still forecast weaker crude oil prices in coming months. As long as Russian supplies have not been actually disrupted, traders will find it hard to form a bullish outlook in the short term, especially with the risk that OPEC+ might increase output again.”

Meanwhile, crude exports via pipeline from northern Iraq to Turkey’s ports have recently resumed, after being halted for more than two years. Amer Al-Mehairi, general manager of Northern Iraqi Oil Company, stated that exports are ongoing.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record oversupply of crude oil in 2026, as OPEC+ continues to restore production while competitors outside the group also increase output. Goldman Sachs said that despite China stockpiling oil, Brent crude may fall to the mid-$50 range next year.

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