OPEC+ representative: Production increase may remain suspended in March, crude oil supply not significantly affected by geopolitical factors.

On January 26th, according to media reports citing several OPEC+ representatives, the organization is expected to decide to maintain its current production policy at the monthly meeting held this Sunday, and may continue to halt production increases in March.

Facing the complex environment of simultaneous global crude oil market structural oversupply and tensions in many regions, OPEC+ is very likely to stick to the first quarter production freeze arrangement first announced last November. Core member states Saudi Arabia and Russia will lead this video meeting to review related resolutions.

Since the start of this year, supported by geopolitical risks and supply fluctuations among some oil-producing countries, Brent crude oil prices have seen a slight upward trend, hovering around $65 per barrel on Monday. However, the current price is only about $1 higher than when OPEC+ announced "pause on production increase" in early November last year, highlighting the market’s delicate balance between seasonal demand slowdown and supply adjustments.

Geopolitical Risks Have Yet to Affect Supply

Recently, large-scale protests have erupted in Iran and been met with strong responses, but so far have not affected the country’s oil production. According to CCTV News, demonstrations broke out in Iran recently due to rising prices and currency devaluation. Disturbances occurred in multiple places, resulting in casualties. On January 9th, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement saying that under planning and control by the U.S. and Israel, these protests have escalated into acts undermining national security.

Meanwhile, after the Trump administration forcibly controlled former leader Maduro, to help revitalize Venezuela’s economy, the country’s oil exports to Europe have resumed for the first time in nearly a year. According to CCTV News, on January 14th local time, a U.S. government official disclosed that the U.S. has completed its first sale of Venezuelan oil. The transaction was worth $500 million, and the official added that more oil sales are expected in the coming days and weeks.

One representative made it clear that there are currently no signs indicating the need to make a policy response to unrest in member countries. However, another representative added that if a major supply disruption occurs, OPEC+ may still take measures to increase production.

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