OpenAI "ghost story" hits the stock market hard, but the bond market "didn't panic."
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OpenAI triggers risk of AI narrative collapse, tech stocks hit hard, but the bond market is largely unmoved.
On Tuesday, Wallstreetcn reported that OpenAI failed to meet internal targets for weekly active users and revenue, prompting the market to quickly re-evaluate expectations for AI investment returns.
All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq falling 0.9% from its record high. Oracle, CoreWeave, SoftBank, and Nvidia—all deeply linked to OpenAI—saw their stock prices plunge collectively.
(Intraday trend of U.S. benchmark stock indices)
However, the bond market's reaction was noticeably calm.
Oracle bonds due in July 2036 saw yields rise only slightly, about 9 basis points, a much smaller move compared to the volatility when the company announced increased capital expenditures in December last year. CoreWeave's newly issued bonds also experienced only a mild pullback.
Currently, the market focus has shifted to the intensive release of tech giants' earnings reports this week. Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta will disclose results after the U.S. markets close on Wednesday.
AI ecosystem faces concentrated sell-off
This downturn was highly concentrated in companies most closely associated with OpenAI.
Oracle's stock fell 4%, cloud partner CoreWeave dropped 5.8%, Nvidia slipped 1.6%, Broadcom and AMD each fell more than 3%.
(Intraday weakness in Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave, and SoftBank ADRs)
SoftBank plunged nearly 10% on the Japanese stock market, marking the largest single-day drop since November last year. Its U.S. ADRs subsequently fell further, tumbling over 12%. SoftBank previously pledged to invest over $60 billion in OpenAI.
Dan Morgan, portfolio manager at Synovus Trust, stated:
The ice is very thin, the rope is tied tightly. Any news that raises doubts about OpenAI or Anthropic will trigger a sell-off.
Goldman Sachs trading desk monitoring showed that this sell-off affected multiple segments of the AI industry chain. Baskets of AI inference beneficiaries, data center themes, memory chip stocks, AI semiconductor stocks, and leading AI stocks all saw pronounced weakness.
(Basket of AI inference beneficiary stocks fell)
High beta momentum stocks performed particularly poorly, with declines reaching -2.4 standard deviations.
(Intraday drop in the high beta momentum portfolio)
Dan Morgan also noted that he did not adjust positions on Tuesday, believing that these concerns have not spread broadly; IBM, Texas Instruments, and Intel have all published strong earnings recently.
Tech companies less directly linked to OpenAI performed relatively steadily.
Microsoft edged up 1%, Apple rose 1.2%, and software firms Adobe, Salesforce, and ServiceNow all closed higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell less than 0.1%, the energy sector rose 1.7%, and the consumer staples sector was up 1%, indicating the sell-off has not turned into broad risk-off sentiment.
Why is the bond market "holding steady"?
The sharp volatility in the stock market did not spill over to the bond market.
According to LSEG data, Oracle bonds due July 2036 saw their midprice dip from $83.02 to $82.36, pushing yields up from 6.133% to 6.232%—a rise of about 9.9 basis points.
In comparison, when Oracle announced increased capital spending last December, yields on the same bond jumped 12.8 basis points in a single day; since 2026, daily average volatility for this bond has been about 0.5 basis points.
Analysts regard Oracle bonds as benchmark indicators to evaluate blue-chip AI companies’ debt risk.
The reason is that, compared to major hyperscale cloud providers such as Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet, Oracle carries relatively heavier debt.
By the end of 2025, Oracle's total debt-to-EBITDA ratio is 4.1, while Microsoft's for the same period is only 0.22; all other three hyperscale cloud providers' ratios are below 1.
Even so, Oracle bonds remain investment grade, with relatively stable credit quality.
CoreWeave’s situation is similar.
The company issued bonds on April 14 due in October 2031; midprice slipped from $100.55 to $99.94, with yields rising from 9.64% to 9.81%, up around 17 basis points—a similarly mild response.
The bond market’s overall composure reflects that fixed-income investors' views on the AI-related companies’ credit fundamentals have not substantially changed.
But analysts note that the intensive earnings releases by large tech companies this week will be the key test—only actual performance data can prompt the bond market to respond.
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