Over 200 GWh shipped in the off-season, CATL steps hard on the gas.

Author | Zhou Zhiyu The price of lithium carbonate has risen from less than 60,000 yuan/ton a year ago to over 150,000, more than doubling. The entire industry chain is focused on one question: can the battery giant withstand the profit pressure? CATL’s Q1 report released on the evening of April 15 didn’t just withstand it—it exceeded market expectations. The capital market reacted directly. On the day after the Q1 report, CATL’s A shares once rose more than 6%, with the stock price reaching 460 yuan/share, a new historical high, with a total market value surpassing 2 trillion. From the low point in January 2024, the stock price has more than doubled. Revenue grew year-on-year by 52%, an unusual feat for the traditional off-season. Wallstreetcn learned that CATL shipped over 200GWh of power and storage batteries in Q1, and expects Q2 capacity utilization to remain high. Despite raw material prices doubling, single-Watt profits remained stable. Looking ahead, CATL remains optimistic about the industry’s prospects for the next few years, predicting that by 2030 the global market for power batteries plus energy storage could reach 4TWh, maintaining rapid growth. Accelerated Off-Season Q1 revenue reached 129.1 billion yuan, up 52% YoY, and net profit attributable to parent was 20.7 billion yuan, up 49%. CATL performed impressively in the traditionally off-season first quarter. The most direct variable is the leap in market share. According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in Q1 2026, CATL's domestic power battery production share rebounded to 47.72%, up 3.38 percentage points YoY, and it was the first share rebound in nearly three years. Last year, CATL’s capacity utilization was near full, causing spillover orders. This year, as capacity is released, orders are returning. CATL said that Q1 production schedules were still saturated overall. But the share recovery is just stock restoration. The 52% acceleration has other sources. In Q1, the energy storage per vehicle increased YoY by 10%~15%. Battery packs for range-extended models are growing, pure electrics are competing on range, and hybrid configurations are being beefed up. Passenger car sales growth is slowing down, but the product of “sales volume × battery size” is still accelerating. This means that even if the penetration rate story reaches a plateau, the shipment curve of battery plants will not flatten. The boom in commercial vehicles is another dimension. In power battery shipments, commercial and special-use vehicles already account for about one-third, up from less than a quarter a year ago. Heavy truck electrification doubled YoY last year. This makes commercial vehicles an important focus this year—once the cost tipping point is passed, expansion can be very rapid. Energy storage, always CATL’s second growth curve, surged notably in Q1. Storage made up 25% of shipments, about 50GWh, compared to about 20% YoY. The catalyst was the implementation of capacity electricity pricing policy, changing storage from a speculative tool betting on off-peak/peak price spreads into an infrastructure asset with guaranteed cash flows, fundamentally changing attitudes of project and funding parties. Market share recovery, increased battery size, commercial vehicle surge, and accelerated storage growth—any of these alone would be unremarkable, but appearing together in one quarter, their synergy pushed growth to 52%. Stress Test in a Price Surge Cycle Whether costs can be passed along is the key issue in this report. Lithium carbonate's doubling is only one factor—copper, aluminum and other commodities also rose, with raw materials up across the board. CATL’s tiered pricing contract mechanism with downstream customers was field-tested for the first time in a big price upcycle. The result: gross margin was about 24.8%, a slight YoY increase. CATL said it did not actively raise prices in Q1. All price changes came from contractual metal linkage clauses—when lithium carbonate rises, battery prices adjust automatically. No one cared about this when lithium was low. Now, prices have doubled and pass-through works. Profit per watt remained stable. Rising raw material prices pushed up battery total prices, but with per-watt profit unchanged, the denominator of the gross margin ratio became larger, so the ratio fell. With storage’s share rising (whose gross margin is lower than power batteries domestically), the product mix also dragged overall margin down. Compared with last year’s 26.5% full-year gross, Q1's 24.8% is lower. But versus 24.4% in Q1 last year, it was slightly improved. CATL still sees the FY gross margin as “relatively stable.” Another big variable in the P&L: exchange loss. Wallstreetcn had previously noted CATL’s “financial attributes,” with 330 billion in cash in 2025 and full-year financial fees at -7.9 billion, earning interest and exchange gains. But in Q1, financial fees swung from -2.29 billion YoY to +60 million, a 2.35 billion swing. Reason: the stronger RMB caused FX loss on the foreign currency portion of its 350 billion cash. This 2.35 billion largely explains why net profit growth (49%) was slightly below revenue growth (52%). Operating profit power did not worsen—financial tailwinds became headwinds. Signals of Stepping on the Accelerator Again On the Q1 balance sheet, construction-in-progress rose from 29.7 to 34.9 billion, up 5.2 billion in a quarter. Bonds payable jumped from 3.4 to 11.3 billion, with 8 billion issued in Q1. The Hungary plant completed equipment commissioning, about to start production. A >100GWh storage base in Jining, Shandong is advancing. CATL was restrained in capacity expansion in 2023-2024, repeatedly stressing “caution” during investor calls. That word has now disappeared. Board Secretary Jiang Li said that since H2 2024, CATL has gradually resumed capacity expansion and was the first in the industry to see signs of market recovery. With passenger vehicle penetration past 50%, certainty is much higher. Commercial vehicles have passed the cost inflection point, with notable heavy truck volume. Domestic energy storage has been activated by new rules and can generate real profit. The demand from AI data centers is solid, with a single center possibly needing 15-20GWh in storage. Management revealed that by 2030, the global power plus storage market could hit 4TWh, with compound annual growth above 25~30% for the next few years. 4TWh. In 2025, global power battery usage is about 1,187GWh. So, more than double in five years. This number explains all of CATL’s current moves—issuing bonds to reserve funds, expanding wealth management to hedge declining deposit yields, investing faster in the value chain, steadily pushing forward Hungary phase II. A company making over 70 billion a year is not just reaping, it is laying infrastructure for a multifold larger market. CATL is not the only one sensing opportunity. BYD is launching ultra-fast charge batteries, EVE and Hithium are aggressively expanding storage production, LG and Samsung SDI are racing for North American capacity. Jiang Li said that after BYD followed the ultra-fast charge trend, many OEMs approached CATL for further cooperation. Competitors have educated the market for CATL. This round of lithium battery expansion is fundamentally different from that of 2021–2022. The last round was driven by one factor: passing from 15% to 30% penetration. Everyone bet on the same direction, and retreated together afterwards. This round is driven by multiple lines: penetration, battery size, commercial vehicles, storage, data centers—five forces coinciding. Fragmentation means less risk from any single factor, but each line's real slope is yet to be proven. CATL’s conviction: the new cycle has started, no time to wait. Next week, CATL will announce new tech, products, and an ecosystem to seek further market share breakthroughs. With a planned registered capital of 30 billion to establish Times Resource Group, integrating years of investments in lithium, nickel, phosphorus, and other key resources into a specialized platform, and inviting Zijin Mining founder Chen Jinghe to be a company advisor—all this is to prepare for the coming lithium battery boom and reinforce supply chain security. For the lithium battery industry, when the world’s largest shipper ends restraint and bets big on capacity again, others need to answer one question: follow, or not? Those who followed wrong last time are still digesting excess capacity. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks; investments need caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account any particular user’s individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Users should consider whether any opinion, viewpoint, or conclusion herein is suitable for their circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.