Photovoltaic giants Tongwei and Longi expect losses of nearly 10 billion yuan; no turning point seen amid deep industry adjustment.

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The wave of profit warnings from leading companies in the photovoltaic industry for 2025 continues to spread. On January 18, Tongwei Co., Ltd. and LONGi Green Energy released their annual performance forecasts, expecting net losses of 9-10 billion yuan and 6-6.5 billion yuan respectively, marking the continuation of deep industry adjustment.

Previously, major players in polysilicon such as Daqo New Energy, and module giants JinkoSolar and Trina Solar had successively disclosed full-year profit warnings for 2025. The concentrated losses among these leading companies directly reflect the photovoltaic industry’s ongoing deep adjustment phase, facing multiple pressures including overcapacity, fierce price competition, and intensifying overseas trade barriers.

In terms of secondary market performance, leading stocks like Daqo New Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd. have repeatedly hit new six-month lows, reflecting the market’s cautious stance on the valuation of the photovoltaic sector. LONGi Green Energy noted in its performance forecast that sharply rising costs for silver paste and polysilicon in the fourth quarter significantly increased product costs and further pressured business operations.

The State Administration for Market Regulation held a special interview on January 6, directly pointing out that the photovoltaic polysilicon industry’s “self-discipline alliance” was suspected of monopolistic practices. It demanded the suspension of all self-imposed production and price restrictions, meaning that the industry’s temporary “defense against internal competition” has been dismantled and the market has returned to a state of free competition.

Different sources of losses, pressure across the entire industrial chain

Looking at specific business segments, the sources of losses for leading companies show different characteristics. Tongwei Co., Ltd. disclosed that in its industrial silicon business, ramp-up and debugging of new capacity combined with continuously depressed product prices aggravated the net profit loss by approximately 900 million yuan year-on-year; the average selling prices of battery and module businesses further dropped due to market conditions, and the wafer-battery-module segment altogether made losses worse by about 1.2 billion yuan year-on-year. Notably, even though annual sales volume and average selling price of polysilicon declined year-on-year, price increases in the third quarter led to operational profits in the second half of the year, and the annual loss narrowed by about 600 million yuan.

LONGi Green Energy stated that in 2025, the photovoltaic industry will continue to face supply-demand mismatches and low-price competitive pressure, with operating rates remaining low. Domestic power market reforms are deepening and overseas trade barriers are intensifying, making for a challenging and complex business environment. Restricted by persistently depressed product prices and cost pressures, the company’s business performance continues to show losses.

Weak supply and demand pattern persists in the industry

The Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association pointed out that although the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products supports short-term expectations for battery and module exports, some of the demand was already pulled forward into 2025, so the actual boost to current demand is relatively limited. On the other hand, soaring silver prices have greatly increased production costs for the cell and module segments, and it remains unclear to what extent end power stations can accept rising costs, resulting in a high degree of uncertainty in downstream operating rate adjustments. All parties in the market are waiting for clearer demand signals.

Analysts have noted that the photovoltaic industry is currently in a weak supply and demand pattern. After a large release in demand in the past two years, demand has entered a stable stage. Overseas markets such as the Middle East and Australia can still contribute incremental demand, but after the implementation of export tax rebates and the end of the "rush export" window, the changes in overseas market demand remain highly uncertain. In terms of price, since the second half of last year, the photovoltaic industry chain pricing has been characterized by a tug-of-war between "supply reduction expectations pushing prices up" and "actual weak demand," keeping prices stable overall but with significant upward resistance.

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