Polymarket traders betting on a Middle East war: Ceasefire agreement next week!

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On the prediction market platform Polymarket, a group of accounts heavily bet on a US-Iran ceasefire before Trump publicly stated his position, causing strong suspicions of insider trading.

On Monday, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US and Iran had engaged in “very good and productive talks” to end the Middle East war. However, before this, several accounts on Polymarket had quietly established positions, heavily betting that a ceasefire deal would be reached within the week.

Notably, at least one of these accounts has a “precedent”—it has profited significantly from previous bets on the Middle East situation, with a timing precision so sharp that the public widely speculates whether these accounts have political insider connections.

After the incident was exposed, Polymarket promptly announced updates to its insider trading rules, explicitly prohibiting trading based on confidential information and manipulating market outcomes.

Ceasefire Bets Precede Trump’s Announcement

According to Polymarket data, 10 recently opened accounts established large positions in the platform’s “US-Iran ceasefire” market, betting that a ceasefire deal would be reached by March 31 or April 15. These accounts’ total bets were about $160,000, with potential returns over $1 million if a ceasefire happens before the end of the month.

These accounts were first disclosed by X platform user Lirrato on Sunday, then shared by PolymarketHistory for wider circulation.

After Trump’s post on Truth Social, the unrealized gains of these ten accounts increased by more than $300,000. The size and timing of these bets—namely, large positions taken hours before the President’s public statement—are the core triggers for public suspicion.

Same Account Wins Repeatedly

One account stands out in particular, with the trading code “NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS.” This account was opened in late February this year, with its first two trades being a $7,600 bet that the US would strike Iran before February 28, and an $11,283 bet on a strike before March 1. These two trades brought the account profits of over $85,000.

Now, the same account has made additional bets: $8,005 on a US-Iran ceasefire before March 31, and $15,614 on a ceasefire before April 15. Currently, these two positions have unrealized gains totaling over $30,000.

The account’s opening date, betting rhythm, and high win rate have caused some market observers to question whether these Polymarket accounts belong to insiders politically associated with the US or Iran, possessing non-public information about current diplomatic progress.

Insider Trading Shadow Looms Over Prediction Markets

Prediction market platforms have long been accompanied by insider trading controversies. Previously, a Polymarket trader profited over $400,000 by betting the US would take military action against Venezuela, entering the market days before the public announcement. Rival platform Kalshi also recently announced, for the first time, a formal insider trading investigation and the banning of two traders.

In response to these doubts, Polymarket on Monday announced updates to the platform’s insider trading rules, explicitly prohibiting the following: trading on stolen confidential information, trading based on illegal insider tips, and users capable of influencing event outcomes participating in related market trading.

“Market prosperity depends on clear rules,” Polymarket Chief Legal Officer Neal Kumar said in a statement. “Improved rules clarify our behavior expectations for every participant and demonstrate our established compliance infrastructure.”

Analysts point out that Polymarket's proactive rule update may signal that the platform will follow Kalshi's example and formally investigate these suspicious accounts. Currently, whether the accounts betting on a ceasefire with Iran are truly insiders is still unknown, but if Polymarket launches an investigation, the truth may soon be revealed.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risk, and investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider the special investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their specific situation. All investments made accordingly are at one's own risk. ```