"‘Precision trading’ repeatedly occurs; the White House warns internal staff not to bet on prediction markets."

```

A series of "remarkably accurate" bets have appeared in the prediction markets, prompting the White House to issue a rare compliance warning to all staff.

According to the latest report from The Wall Street Journal, on March 24, the day after Trump announced the suspension of airstrikes on Iran, the White House Office of Management sent an internal email to all employees, warning them not to use their official positions to place "precision bets" in the futures or prediction markets.

The background of this email is intriguing. On March 23, Trump announced the suspension of airstrikes via Truth Social. About 15 minutes before this announcement, there was sudden abnormal volatility in the oil futures market—according to Dow Jones market data, more than $760 million worth of oil futures contracts were settled in less than two minutes. Afterwards, before the Iran ceasefire agreement was reached this week, three accounts on Polymarket placed bets on the timing of the ceasefire, earning over $600,000 combined.

The White House confirmed the authenticity of the email. Trump spokesperson Davis Ingle told the media, "President Trump's only special interest has always been the greatest interest of the American people." He also emphasized that banning insider trading is not unusual, and characterized any report suggesting White House insiders profited from their positions as "baseless and irresponsible."

Currently, there is no evidence of the leaking of inside information, but the anonymity and encryption features of prediction markets are creating new compliance risks for federal employees and political insiders.

Why Prediction Markets Have Become a New Compliance Grey Area

Prediction markets allow users to bet on everything from sports events to geopolitical developments, and to cash out anonymously. This characteristic creates an obvious gap compared to the regulatory logic of traditional financial markets.

Current federal ethics regulations already prohibit administrative employees from gambling on federal premises and explicitly ban using government information for private gain. However, a senior executive officer who received the email said that this warning seemed more like a "timely gentle reminder"—because suspicious large bets in the futures market "are exactly a news hotspot."

In other words, the rules themselves are not new, but the anonymity of encrypted prediction markets makes regulatory enforcement much more challenging.

Abnormal Bets Attract Widespread Attention

Similar "precision trades" aren't isolated incidents.

In January this year, an unidentified trader placed heavy bets on Polymarket that Maduro would step down within five hours of being forcibly controlled by the U.S., eventually profiting over $400,000. In February, Israel arrested several people, including reserve soldiers, accusing them of using military secrets to place bets on Israeli military operations on Polymarket.

These cases have already sparked strong public reactions, even affecting Trump's supporter base. Well-known investor and pro-Trump podcast "PBD Podcast" co-host Tom Ellsworth said bluntly on the March 25 episode: "It's disgusting." He speculated that an "inner circle" within the government knew in advance "what the president would say" and acted ahead of time. "The timing," he said, "just stinks."

Legislative Pressure Mounts

Democratic lawmakers are pushing the issue into the legislative arena.

Last month, Senator Richard Blumenthal issued a statement criticizing prediction markets for "turning war into a casino game and creating a market for national security leaks." Together with New Jersey Democratic Senator Andy Kim, he proposed legislation to completely ban prediction market bets related to war or military operations.

Kim stated: "Corruption and exploitation are breeding in the loopholes and grey areas of prediction markets."

Currently, Polymarket and Dow Jones have a data cooperation relationship.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users' particular investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstance. Investing accordingly is at your own risk. ```