"Predicting 'When will Trump end the war'? Here are five key points"

```

The Iran war has become the most significant geopolitical shock to the global energy market since the Gulf War in 1990.

Since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 26, 2026, Brent crude oil surged 44% in just 25 days, U.S. wholesale gasoline price (Rbob) rose 48%, U.S. diesel price increased 51%, and European diesel price jumped 58%.

Barclays Capital's latest research warns: When the war ends will directly determine whether crude oil prices return to the baseline scenario of $85/barrel, or break through $110/barrel. For investors, five key catalytic factors—military target progress, congressional funding negotiations, US military casualty numbers, retail gasoline prices, and Trump's personal judgment—are the core variables for current energy market pricing.

Barclays believes oil prices will diverge at three key time nodes: If the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal passage in early April, Barclays maintains its baseline forecast of $85/barrel for Brent crude in 2026; if delayed to late April, the average price may be repriced at around $98/barrel; if postponed to late May, the average price could reach $111/barrel. Each day of delay accumulates an inventory gap that is transmitted forward in a snowball effect, pushing up the price center.

Five Key Factors: Core Variables Deciding the Endgame of the War

Barclays public policy analyst Michael McLean has identified five potential catalysts that could end the Iran war:

Key Point 1: Achievement of Military Objectives

According to CCTV News, the United States previously clarified three goals for Iran: destroy Iran's ballistic missile and drone capabilities; strike Iran's navy to ensure passage through the Strait of Hormuz; destroy Iran's military and industrial base to deprive it of offensive capabilities for years. Notably, regime change or the Iranian nuclear program are not included in these objectives.

President Trump estimated in the early days of the war that operations would last "four to five weeks." The war is now into its third week and, according to the White House, may be at an intermediate stage.

However, judging by the number of targets hit, the US Central Command has not shown a clear inflection point for scaling back operations, and additional troops are still being deployed. While Iran's missile and drone attacks on the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain have dropped sharply, they have not completely ceased, indicating Iran still has some offensive capabilities. Barclays believes that until the relevant metrics drop further, it cannot be determined that the military objectives have been achieved.

Key Point 2: Congressional Constraints—The War Powers Act Creates a Hard Deadline of May 31

The War Powers Act stipulates that after deploying military forces and submitting a report to Congress, the President must obtain Congressional authorization (AUMF) within 60 days; the President can extend for an extra 30 days, and after 90 days, military actions must be mandatorily terminated. Trump submitted the report on March 2, so the hard deadline is May 31.

AUMF requires 60 votes in the Senate, but Republicans currently hold only 53 seats. Democrats have expressed their stance through two votes on opposing resolutions—making it extremely unlikely for AUMF to pass, making May 31 the institutional hard boundary for ending the war.

The financial cost of the war is also rapidly accumulating: in the first week, expenses were about $11-12 billion; current daily operational costs have dropped to about $500 million; total cumulative spending is estimated to be about $21 billion so far.

By comparison, the 13-year Iraq war's nominal cost was $815 billion; the total defense discretionary budget for FY2026 is $839 billion. In addition, "One Big Beautiful Bill" has allocated $150 billion to the Department of Defense, providing a temporary funding buffer.

Key Point 3: Rising US Military Casualties Will Further Erode Public Support

Barclays points out that domestic support in the US for this war is extremely fragile and shows clear partisan division.

As of March 22, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows: support at just 41%, opposition at 49%. Trump's overall approval rating dropped from 43% to 42%, marking a new low in his second term (lowest in his first term was 37% in December 2017).

So far, 13 US soldiers have been killed.

Historical experience shows that wars typically produce a "rally-around-the-flag" effect, temporarily boosting presidential approval, but Trump has not experienced this effect. The general pattern is: the longer the war, the higher the casualties, and the more pessimistic the public about prospects for victory, anti-war sentiment grows stronger.

Key Point 4: Gasoline Prices Hit the "Political Red Line"—$5/Gallon Is the Critical Threshold

In July 2022 under Biden, the nationwide average gasoline price peaked at $5.01/gallon.

For Republicans, not exceeding this "Biden peak" is a psychological political defense line, corresponding to a WTI price of about $120/barrel—roughly 20% higher than current prices.

Currently, Republican officials remain fairly optimistic, believing that even if oil prices are pressured in the short term, there is enough time for prices to fall before Labor Day (before investors start focusing on the mid-term election). The administration has also taken a series of measures to ease price pressure, including releasing strategic reserves and waiving relevant sanctions.

Key Point 5: Trump "Declares Victory" and Proactively Changes Course

Barclays believes that regardless of actual progress on the battlefield, there is always a possibility that Trump might proactively declare victory and end the war at some point. Previously, when asked how to judge when the war would end, Trump's answer was intriguing—"when I feel it in my bones."

Barclays explicitly states that this catalyst's timing is almost completely unpredictable.

In communications with clients, a mainstream analogy is that Trump’s policy reversal after "Liberation Day" (tariff announcement on April 2, 2025) has conditioned investors to believe that a market crash could drive Trump to shift course.

But Barclays believes the current market reaction is not "panicked" enough: after Liberation Day, the S&P 500 Index fell about 12%, but only about 5% since the start of this war; the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 60 basis points after Liberation Day, but only 40 basis points now; the investment-grade credit spread widened 26 basis points after Liberation Day, but only 9 basis points at the current peak. More importantly, suspending a tariff administrative order is much easier than ending a real war.

Significant Upside Risks for Oil Prices

Barclays' core judgment is: the current rise in oil prices is not a speculative bubble, but a reflection of real supply-demand imbalance.

Before the war, Brent crude was undervalued relative to OECD inventory historic fair value by about 19%, and by about 15% relative to the alternative cost model; net spec long positions in Brent and WTI at the end of 2025 were at the 2nd percentile since 2014—a historically low level.

The dynamic evolution of the five catalysts—military target progress, congressional funding negotiations, US military casualty numbers, retail gasoline prices, Trump’s personal judgment—will be the most important high-frequency tracking dimensions to judge the direction of the energy market going forward. Barclays points out that under uncertainty, the risk for Brent crude oil’s $85/barrel forecast in 2026 is skewed to the upside.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The above brilliant content is from Chasing Wind Trading Desk.

For more detailed analysis, including real-time analysis and frontline research, please join the 【Chasing Wind Trading Desk ▪ Annual Membership】

Risk Disclaimer and Exemption ClauseThe market carries risk; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account an individual user's specific investment goals, financial situation or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own risk. ```