Prediction markets bet on "world's top market cap": Next year Google will directly challenge Nvidia and Apple with AI chips.

As advances in artificial intelligence technology continue to drive stock prices higher, Google’s parent company Alphabet is making a push for the throne of the world’s largest market capitalization, with some market participants already betting it will surpass Nvidia and Apple in the coming year.

According to the latest data from prediction market Polymarket, Alphabet now has a 33% chance of becoming the world’s largest company by December 2026, second only to Nvidia’s 37%. Previously, DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe noted in a report that the likelihood of both companies becoming the largest in the world was once equal at 36%.

Alphabet’s stock price has rebounded more than 60% in 2025, and is expected to be the best-performing “Magnificent Seven” stock this year. Last month, the company’s market value overtook Microsoft to become the world’s third largest, currently trailing only Nvidia and Apple.

Rabe believes that the prediction market’s ranking is “extremely favorable” for Alphabet, and this optimism mainly stems from the strong momentum shown by Google’s large language model Gemini and its custom chips known as Tensor Processing Units (TPUs).

Prediction Market Heats Up and Market Cap Gap

Although Alphabet is currently still the third largest company in the world, its momentum in catching up to the leaders has drawn close attention from the market.

Current market cap data show that to surpass Nvidia, Alphabet still needs to close a considerable gap. Nvidia’s current market cap stands at $4.2 trillion, Apple’s at $4 trillion, while Alphabet is at $3.7 trillion.

However, Polymarket trading data reflect a shift in investor confidence.

Jessica Rabe pointed out that the probability of Alphabet surpassing its two main competitors to take the top spot is rising. Although the current probability of 33% is slightly lower than Nvidia’s 37%, this indicates that the market does not see a change in the rankings as unimaginable.

Although Alphabet’s market value currently lags behind Nvidia, analysts believe that the scenario of it becoming the number one company next year is plausible.

As early as last September, MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson had predicted such an outcome.

He believes that thanks to diversified business lines and rapidly growing cloud services, Alphabet will not only be a winner in the era of generative AI, but also should be regarded as a strong contender for the title of “the world’s most valuable company.”

AI Chips and Gemini Model Form the Core Driver

The key catalyst for market bullishness on Alphabet lies in its progress in custom chip development.

Analysts have begun to discuss whether Alphabet will seize market share from Nvidia, as the company now rents out TPUs to customers in addition to internal use.

Moreover, the release of Gemini 3 is also an important factor driving this year’s stock price growth. This model is trained on TPUs and has outperformed OpenAI’s ChatGPT in key benchmark tests, further validating Alphabet’s technological strength in the integration of software and hardware.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any views, opinions, or conclusions in this article fit their particular circumstances. Investment based on this is at one’s own risk.