Profit triples! Samsung expects Q4 profit of 20 trillion won and revenue of 93 trillion won, both hitting new records, as AI triggers "runaway" price hikes in memory chips

Profit triples! Samsung expects Q4 profit of 20 trillion won and revenue of 93 trillion won, both hitting new records, as AI triggers "runaway" price hikes in memory chips

Storage is red hot; amid the AI wave, Samsung Electronics’ profits are expected to hit a record high.

On January 8 local time, Samsung Electronics released its Q4 2025 earnings guidance. The world's largest memory chip manufacturer is expected to deliver results far exceeding market expectations.

According to preliminary data released by Samsung, the company’s operating profit in the December quarter is expected to reach 20 trillion won (approximately $13.8 billion). This figure not only soared year-over-year, but also broke the previous record of 17.6 trillion won set in Q3 2018. In comparison, analysts previously averaged a forecast of only 17.8 trillion won. As for revenue, it is expected to grow 23% year-over-year to a historic high of 93 trillion won.

  • Operating Profit: Expected to reach 20 trillion won, tripling year-over-year, up 208%, and surging 64% quarter-over-quarter.
  • Sales: Compared to Q4 2024's 75.79 trillion won, up about 23% year-over-year; compared to last quarter's 86.06 trillion won, up about 8% quarter-over-quarter.

The logic behind these numbers is very clear: This is not a story of comprehensive demand recovery—it's a story of the supply side being squeezed hard by AI.

To satisfy the bottomless demand from AI giants like Nvidia for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and enterprise SSDs, Samsung and other memory makers are aggressively shifting production lines from regular consumer chips to high-margin, high-end chips. This structural shift in capacity directly caused a severe shortage of standard memory chips for laptops and servers.

  • DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory): According to CLSA Korea head of research Sanjeev Rana, Q4 average selling price (ASP) for DRAM jumped over 30% quarter-over-quarter.
  • NAND (Flash Memory): Prices rose about 20% quarter-over-quarter.
  • Year-over-year data is even more stunning: According to market tracker TrendForce, contract prices for certain types of DRAM chips in Q4 surged 313% year-over-year.

For the market, the divergence in expectations is this: although the market predicted a price hike, it underestimated hyperscalers’ willingness to pay premiums to grab DRAM resources, and underestimated the severity of this supply crisis. Samsung’s stock has doubled in the past six months, and continued to soar this month, reflecting strong bullish sentiment on the memory cycle.

Wall Street Bets: Memory Prices Will “Go Out of Control”

Currently, Wall Street continues to bet on “out-of-control” price hikes for memory chips.

According to a WallstreetCN article, the latest Citi report shows analysts believe the market is entering an extremely fierce seller’s market. Citi warns that in 2026 the world will face “severe supply shortages” in memory chips, issuing highly aggressive forecasts:

  1. Prices Out of Control: Server DRAM average selling prices in 2026 are expected to surge 144% year-over-year (previous forecast: 91%); enterprise SSD prices are expected to increase 87%.
  2. Upward Revision of Profit Expectations: Based on this, Citi projects Samsung’s operating profit in 2026 will soar to 155 trillion won, a year-over-year surge of 253%.

CLSA analysts also note that hyperscalers are willing to pay a premium for stockpiling, and strong prices are expected to persist throughout 2026, possibly extending into the first half of 2027.

Catching Up in HBM: From Lagging to Counterattack

In this round of AI boom, Samsung had lagged behind SK Hynix and Micron Technology in the HBM field. However, the latest signals show that Samsung is narrowing the gap.

Reportedly, Samsung delivered its cutting-edge HBM4 samples to Nvidia last year for qualification testing. This has triggered optimism in the market, with expectations that Samsung may begin mass production this year to support Nvidia’s upcoming Rubin processors. CLSA estimates that with HBM4 entering commercial supply, Samsung’s total HBM shipments will triple in 2026.

If Samsung passes validation and scales up production smoothly, this could mean a new valuation logic—shifting from simply benefiting from cyclical price hikes to becoming a key player in the core AI supply chain.

Downstream Pain: The Double-Edged Sword of Price Hikes

However, the flip side is severe inflation in downstream hardware costs.

Samsung’s Mobile, TV, and Appliances co-CEO TM Roh openly admitted that the impact of memory chip price hikes is “inevitable” and does not rule out raising product prices. DB Securities analyst Seo Seung-yeon predicts that due to rising component costs, Samsung’s mobile business profit in Q4 might decline year-over-year.

Counterpoint Research forecasts that DDR5 memory prices for computers and servers will rise another 40% this quarter, and continue to increase 20% in Q2. This means that while Samsung's semiconductor division is raking in profits, its consumer electronics division—as well as clients like Apple—face severe margin squeeze.

Samsung will release a full financial report—containing net profit and detailed breakdowns for each division—later this month (expected January 29).

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