Qatar plan: LNG production capacity will recover to 50% one month after the strait reopens, 80% after two months.

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Qatar is preparing to rapidly increase liquefied natural gas production once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, planning to restore export capacity to about 80% within two months. This timeline is faster than market expectations, but some facilities damaged by missile strikes will still take years to fully repair.

According to media citing sources, the state oil company QatarEnergy has told buyers it expects to raise production to about 50% of capacity within a month of the strait safely reopening, and to about 80% within two months. This progress exceeds the expectations of some analysts and traders, sending a positive signal.

In March this year, following an Iranian missile strike, Qatar closed the world’s largest LNG facility—the Ras Laffan complex. Last year, its exports accounted for about one-fifth of global supply; more than three months of shutdown severely hurt Qatar’s reputation as a stable supplier.

The return of Qatari LNG will help ease the global supply crunch. Although the US and Iran have reached a preliminary peace agreement, LNG prices in Europe and Asia remain well above pre-war levels. QatarEnergy did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Restart Roadmap: 80% Capacity Within Two Months, Full Repairs Will Take Years

According to reports, QatarEnergy has been laying the groundwork for a rapid restart since April. Bloomberg reported in April that QatarEnergy has been testing equipment and performing necessary maintenance. Multiple production lines are currently operating at low capacity, supplying neighboring countries as well as reserving operational space for later ramp-up.

Media quoted sources saying parts of the Ras Laffan facility were damaged in the Iranian missile strike in March, meaning the remaining capacity equivalent to two production lines will take years to fully recover. This means that even after the two-month recovery mark, the facility will remain operating well below pre-war levels for a long time.

This restart plan is premised on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the strait is effectively blockaded, large-scale LNG transport has been hindered. Qatar previously could only deliver small amounts of cargo to Asian buyers through clandestine positioning of oil tankers, but deliveries remained far below normal levels.

Uncertainty Over Strait Reopening, Divisions Among US Allies

Trump has repeatedly stated that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen this Friday—when the US and Iran will sign a temporary agreement in Switzerland. However, according to Bloomberg, his European allies do not share this optimism; a senior US official also said mines in the strait still need to be cleared. Shipowners, traders, and producers are all waiting for further clarity.

The current situation adds volatility to the market. Even if the agreement is signed as scheduled, whether the actual navigation conditions can soon meet the safety requirements for large LNG vessels is the key variable determining if Qatar’s restart plan will stick to schedule.

Supply Gap Persists, Global LNG Market Awaits Recovery

Since Qatar’s shutdown three months ago, the global LNG market has been under significant pressure. The facility’s exports last year were nearly one-fifth of total global supply; its suspension directly caused buyers to cancel orders and spurred price increases. Although the US-Iran peace agreement is initially reached, LNG prices in Europe and Asia currently remain above pre-war levels.

Whether Qatar can deliver on its rapid restart promise will be an important indicator of whether supply and demand in the market can rebalance quickly. Analysts and traders previously held more conservative expectations for capacity recovery time, but QatarEnergy’s timetable communicated to buyers is more optimistic and may directly influence near-term LNG price trends.

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