Qatar Returns to the Asian Crude Oil Market as Middle East "War Premium" Quickly Diminishes after US-Iran Deal

With the implementation of the temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil exports from Persian Gulf oil-producing countries are rapidly recovering, and the wartime premium in the Middle East is being quickly erased.

According to media reports citing informed traders, Qatar sold a batch of Al-Shaheen crude oil to Formosa Petrochemical this week for delivery between August and September; last week it also sold several grades of crude oil including Al-Shaheen, Marine, and Land to an Indian refiner. This is the first observed sale of Qatari crude to Asian refiners since the outbreak of war, marking a comprehensive acceleration in the country’s energy exports.

These transactions are directly reflected in oil price trends. Brent crude benchmark price has sharply declined this month, erasing all wartime gains. Meanwhile, UAE crude exports have rebounded significantly, while Iraq and Kuwait have also resumed exports, signaling clear momentum in supply reconstruction across the Gulf region.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is the core driving force of this round of supply recovery. According to Bloomberg, after the restoration of the strait passage, oil sales and transportation resumed, and the supply side of the market is rapidly being restored.

Qatari Crude First Appears Among Asian Buyers

This transaction involves Formosa Petrochemical and an Indian refiner, marking the first observable cases of Qatari crude sales to Asian refineries since the conflict began. According to media reports citing informed traders, the Al-Shaheen crude purchased by Formosa covers the period from August to September, while the deal with the Indian buyer last week included Al-Shaheen, Marine, and Land grades.

It is notable that before returning to the crude oil market, Qatar had already been noticeably more proactive and aggressive in the recovery of its production and export of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The return of its crude oil business means its overall energy export strategy is becoming more comprehensive.

From the perspective of physical transportation, Qatar's export recovery is also clearly visible. Ship tracking data shows that a Greek supertanker named Kiku is currently loading about 2 million barrels of Qatari crude at the Al-Shaheen floating storage and offloading terminal. Kiku appeared in the Persian Gulf on the morning of June 19, with its last broadcast location on June 13 in the Gulf of Oman, making it one of the earliest major VLCCs to enter the Persian Gulf after the US-Iran agreement.

In addition, Qatar Energy has issued an offer to export gasoline from the Mesaieed refinery in the Persian Gulf next month, indicating that its upstream and downstream processing and export businesses are all accelerating their restart. According to the Equasis database, Kiku is managed by Greece’s Apex Shipping & Energy Ltd., which has not responded to requests for comment.

Wartime Premium Fades, Brent Price Erases All Gains

The rapid return of crude oil supply is suppressing prices. Brent crude has seen a significant decline this month, fully giving back all the wartime premium accumulated since the outbreak of conflict, directly reflecting market pricing adjustments in response to supply recovery.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a key turning point in this supply shock. According to previous reports from Bloomberg, after the restoration of shipping in the strait, pent-up demand for oil sales and transport is being released, and regional supply is rapidly entering the market.

Currently, UAE crude exports have noticeably rebounded, Iraq and Kuwait have also resumed exports, and the reconstruction of supply from all Gulf oil-producing countries is forming a joint force, accelerating the disappearance of the wartime premium.

LNG Export Ramping Up, Output Recovery Expected Soon

In the LNG sector, Qatar’s pace of recovery is also accelerating. According to media reports quoting informed sources, Qatar plans to rapidly ramp up ultra-cold fuel production once the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, expecting to restore most export capacity within two months.

Bloomberg previously reported that Qatar has recently dispatched more unladen LNG ships to the Persian Gulf and, this week, has been sending more LNG carriers through the Strait of Hormuz. There has also been a significant increase in tanker activity near the Ras Laffan facility—a key infrastructure hub for Qatar's energy exports.

Qatar Energy is responsible for the country’s entire energy supply, including crude oil, refined products, and LNG. As its export chain is fully activated, Qatar is shifting quickly from wartime stagnation to full-speed export mode.

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