Qatar's LNG export disruption marks the longest since 2008, sparking a "gas scramble" between Asia and Europe.

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Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facility has had five consecutive days of zero exports, setting the longest shutdown record since at least 2008, and the resulting global LNG supply crisis is reshaping trade patterns—ships originally headed for Europe are now turning towards Asia, ushering in an intercontinental bidding war.

The ripple effects of the Middle East conflict have quickly spread to the global energy market. According to Bloomberg vessel tracking data, since the outbreak of the conflict, at least eight LNG ships originally destined for Europe have rerouted to Asia, and this trend has accelerated in recent days. At the same time, a smaller LNG export facility in Abu Dhabi is also unable to ship normally, and the combined supply gap from these two places accounts for about 20% of global LNG supply. Gas prices in both Europe and Asia, the world's two largest consumer markets, have surged dramatically over the past week, raising concerns over inflation and economic implications.

With multiple pressures accumulating, the industry's previously widespread expectation of an LNG supply glut in 2026 has nearly evaporated. Rabobank energy strategist Florence Schmit said:

"The market is now facing a supply shortage even with increased supply from the US. The LNG glut has been delayed by a full year."

Five days of zero exports, a historic shutdown

According to Bloomberg's analysis of Kpler vessel tracking data, within five days, no fully loaded tankers departed from the Ras Laffan facility—a situation not recorded since 2008. Since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, no LNG ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

The immediate trigger for this shutdown was last week's drone attack by Iran on the facility. After the shutdown, Ras Laffan used storage tank inventories to load several shipments, but the last cargo departed last Friday, with no subsequent export records.

According to Bloomberg's calculations based on 2025 production data, each day of interruption leads to roughly three batches of Qatari LNG effectively disappearing from the market. Most supplies from Qatar go to Asian importers, who are now seeking alternative sources or directly cutting gas supplies to end customers such as fertilizer plants and industrial users.

Ships rerouted, Europe and Asia scramble for limited spot cargoes

The intense battle for global LNG supplies is beginning to change physical flows. According to Bloomberg vessel tracking data, at least eight LNG ships originally planned for Europe have been redirected to Asia, with the trend particularly evident in recent days.

Europe faces urgent pressure—after a winter of consumption, its gas storage levels have dropped considerably and it needs to restock before summer. In Asia, temperatures in many regions are expected to be higher than at the same time in previous years, with air conditioning power needs expected to drive up natural gas consumption in the coming months.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance data shows that global LNG imports totaled 8 million metric tons last week, down 26% from the previous week; during the same period, LNG supply dropped 16%. Buyers from India, Bangladesh, and Thailand have turned to the spot market to restock, but some procurement tenders for March delivery (including India's tenders) failed due to a lack of sellers and high prices.

Rystad Energy analyst Mathieu Utting warned: "If this situation continues for months and drags deep into summer, there won't be enough alternative LNG sources to meet global demand." He pointed out that the other two major LNG suppliers—the US and Australia—are already operating at full capacity, with almost no room for increased utilization.

Glut expectations dashed, institutions like Morgan Stanley lower outlook

The impact of the shutdown incident on market supply and demand is being gradually repriced by mainstream institutions. Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott stated in his research report that the bank previously predicted an LNG surplus of 6 to 8 million tons this year, but if Qatar's shutdown lasts over a month, the market will "quickly turn to shortage."

Rabobank's Florence Schmit gave a more specific timeframe: For each week Qatar's capacity is idle, the expected surplus is cut by about 1.5 million tons; at this pace, the market could shift from surplus to shortfall within five weeks. In addition, Qatar Energy's decision to delay launching a major expansion project will further constrain all-year supply in 2026.

US increment limited, new capacity can hardly fill gap in short term

As the world's largest LNG exporter, whether the US can promptly fill the supply vacuum remains in doubt. Although several new facilities are in development, capacity will be released gradually and cannot provide effective replacement in the short term.

The Golden Pass project in Texas, jointly built by Qatar and ExxonMobil, is nearing completion but has not officially started production. Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi facility is still in the process of gradual expansion, while Venture Global is ramping up capacity at its Plaquemines project in Louisiana and is simultaneously building a third project, CP2.

All these new supplies are mid- to long-term plans and cannot provide substantial support for the current sharply tightening spot market in the short run. The rising cost of spot procurement is already pressuring the cash flows of emerging market economies; if the shutdown continues further, risks of local shortages will rise even higher.

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