Quantum Computing 2026: IBM Defines Superconducting Approach, Major Promotion Proposed Again at Two Sessions
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In February 2026, IBM made a major announcement at Barclays' "Quantum Unlock 1.0" investor event, clearly defining the timeline for quantum computing—achieving "quantum advantage" by 2026 and fault-tolerant computing by 2029. This roadmap provides the most actionable technical milestones for the market to date, marking quantum computing's acceleration from laboratory validation toward industrial deployment.
How should we understand the monetization models and technological opportunities in the quantum computing industry?
1. What’s happening? The timeline is becoming clearer
At the first “Members’ Passage” session of the Fourth Meeting of the 14th National Committee of the CPPCC held on March 4, Pan Jianwei, Executive Vice President of the University of Science and Technology of China, introduced several breakthroughs China achieved in quantum technology during the “14th Five-Year Plan.” “We have vigorously promoted the development of quantum science and technology. Quantum communication remains at the forefront internationally, quantum computing holds a position in the world’s first tier, and quantum precision measurement has advanced into leading positions in multiple directions,” he said. “During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we will continue to strengthen original innovation, promote deep integration of industry, academia, and research, accelerate the transformation of achievements, so quantum technology can better serve the cultivation of new productive forces and empower high-quality economic and social development.”
In February 2026, IBM at Barclays’ “Quantum Unlock 1.0” investor event clearly defined its quantum computing timeline: achieving “quantum advantage” by 2026, fault-tolerant computing by 2029. This roadmap provides the most actionable technical milestones for the market to date, marking quantum computing’s acceleration from lab validation to industrialization.
The quantum computing industry has entered a “period of overlapping technological breakthroughs and commercial validation.” On the one hand, the superconducting route, with its advantages in semiconductor process compatibility and gate operation speed, has become the leading solution for general quantum computing, with engineering challenges now replacing physical bottlenecks as core obstacles to scaling. On the other hand, the migration to post-quantum cryptography is urgent, and the threat of “harvest now, crack later” is forcing critical sectors to accelerate PQC deployment.
Based on a deep analysis of the industry chain, we have built a four-dimensional investment analysis framework: “technology route–industry value–timeline–target selection.” Key conclusions: Core upstream equipment such as dilution refrigerators and measurement/control systems benefit from early performance gains due to domestic substitution; quantum cloud platforms and PQC security are expected to become mid-term monetization anchors, while the whole-machine segment still needs to wait for the real turning point of the fault-tolerant era in 2029.
To study the quantum computing industry, one must first understand the fundamental differences between it and the classical computing industry.
① Technology route dimension: superconducting leads, multi-route competition
1) Superconducting route: dominant scheme for general quantum computing
IBM has chosen superconducting qubits as its core technology route for three reasons:
- Quality: Single-qubit error rates have improved significantly, from 10⁻¹ six years ago to 10⁻⁴ today
- Scalability: Superconducting qubits can be manufactured using mature lithography processes, highly compatible with existing semiconductor production lines
- Speed: Gate operation speed is thousands of times faster than competing routes like ion traps and neutral atoms
Compatibility with semiconductor manufacturing and decades of accumulated microwave engineering experience give superconducting qubits structural advantages in practical general quantum computers.
2) The reality of multi-route parallel industry development
Despite superconducting’s dominance, other technology routes offer advantages in specific scenarios:
- Photonic quantum: Long coherence time, compatible with optical fiber communication, “Jiuzhang 3” has demonstrated quantum supremacy with 255 photons
- Ion trap: Long coherence time, high control accuracy, IonQ’s #AQ 64 is a leader
- Neutral atom: Naturally uniform qubits and scalable arrays, QuEra has developed a 256-atom system
- Silicon spin: CMOS process compatible, small area, Intel Tunnel Falls is already shipped
Studying quantum computing requires understanding the industry's “walking on multiple legs” reality—different technological paths excel in qubit count, fidelity, and coherence time, and are hard to replace each other in the short term.
② Industry value dimension: upstream/midstream dominance, prosperity prioritized for volume expansion
The quantum computing industry chain shows an obvious “upstream/midstream dominance” feature. According to Photon Box data, in the global quantum computing market structure for 2024, the upstream accounts for about 40%, midstream about 46%, downstream only 14%. Upstream focuses on core hardware such as dilution refrigerators, measurement/control systems, and quantum chips; midstream covers prototype and whole-machine systems; downstream revolves around quantum cloud platforms and vertical applications.
Because upstream/midstream segments have clear technological barriers and essential hardware attributes, and given the context of autonomy and domestic substitution, they are more likely to generate early orders and revenues, and become core tracks for priority market expansion. The upstream market scale is expected to grow explosively from $2.024 billion in 2024 to $72.57 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 78.3%.
③ Timeline dimension: IBM’s roadmap provides clear coordinates
IBM’s three-stage roadmap “practical stage → quantum advantage → fault-tolerant computing” gives the market a clear coordinate for industrial evolution:
The significance of this timeline is: it drags quantum computing investment from “theme speculation” into a rational “node validation” framework. Investors can refer to the fulfillment of key milestones to dynamically adjust allocation strategies.
④ Competitive landscape dimension: US-China dominate, domestic gap closing
Globally, the US and China sit firmly in the top tier. The US leads in number of quantum companies (215), investment activity (50% global share), and ecosystem completeness. China follows with 145 companies and 107 quantum patents, leading in quantum communication and matching international advanced levels in quantum computers.
Domestically, core parameters on prototype machines like “Zuchongzhi 3” and “Origin Wukong” are now on par with international standards, and the generational gap is narrowing. However, in core areas such as dilution refrigerators and high-end measurement/control equipment, there is ongoing pressure for domestic substitution due to export controls from Europe and the US.
3. What’s next? How to invest in quantum computing
Based on the above research framework, we constructed a four-dimensional investment screening model: “technology route × industry value × timeline × margin of safety”:
① Dimension one: Technology route—focus on superconducting, consider niche paths
The core strategy is to concentrate on superconducting as the main position, allocating photonic quantum, ion trap, etc. as satellite positions. Core targets include IBM, Google, Guodun Quantum, Origin Quantum. The superconducting route benefits from semiconductor process compatibility and has the clearest path to industrialization, suitable for long-term allocation.
② Dimension two: Industry value—heavy allocation to upstream core equipment
The core strategy is to prioritize dilution refrigerators, measurement/control systems, and other upstream core equipment, which combine “essential needs + high barriers + domestic substitution.”
1) Dilution refrigerators: Global market size in 2024 is about $283 million, domestic companies have broken through the 10mK technology barrier. Focus on Hesion Instruments (quantum tailoring technology), Guodun Quantum (ez-Q Fridge), Origin Quantum (Origin SL series).
2) Measurement/control systems: Market size is expected to reach $21.74 billion by 2030. Focus on Guodun Quantum (ez-Q Engine 2.0), Zhongwei Daxin (QCS1000), Origin Quantum (Origin Tianji).
3) Quantum chips: 2024–2035 CAGR estimated at 62.3%. Focus on Guodun Quantum (504-qubit “Xiaohong”), Origin Quantum (72-qubit “Wukong Chip”), Guoyi Quantum (NV center sensor).
③ Dimension three: Timeline—capture three key windows
Window one (2026): Quantum advantage achieved. Focus on Nighthawk processor supply chain and domestic superconducting quantum computer order releases. Guodun Quantum and Origin Quantum are likely to benefit first.
Window two (2027–2028): Large-scale quantum-classical hybrid computing. Track quantum cloud platform user growth and commercialization progress. Platforms like China Telecom “Tianyan,” Origin Quantum Cloud, Liangxuan Technology are worth following.
Window three (2029): Fault-tolerant computing inflection point. Pay attention to pre-outbreak layout opportunities at the application end, including PQC security, material simulation software, financial optimization algorithms, etc.
④ Dimension four: Margin of safety—seek determinism in “Quantum+”
The core strategy is to find determinable monetization paths for “Quantum+,” including:
- Post-quantum cryptography: Quantum computing’s threat to current cryptographic systems is definitive, PQC migration is imperative. Focus on companies like Goeasy Software, Zhongwei Xinan, Xin’an Shiji.
- Quantum-classical hybrid computing: IBM and AMD jointly verified the tight coupling trend of “classical computing power + quantum computing power,” driving incremental CPU/GPU demand.
- Quantum precision measurement: Guoyi Quantum has broken foreign monopoly in electron paramagnetic resonance spectrometers; with a 25% global market share, there is definite space for domestic substitution.
Conclusion: Quantum computing is moving from a technological singularity to industrial validation~
IBM’s quantum computing timeline gives the market a clear roadmap for industrial evolution. Quantum computing investment is shifting from “theme speculation” to a rational “node validation” stage. For the past decade, quantum computing has been seen as “future technology.” However, the market landscape in 2026 is fundamentally changed. Quantum computing is not a substitute for classical computing, but a complement.
Investors interested in quantum computing can adopt a “barbell strategy”: on one side embrace big tech giants like IBM and Google with strong moats, and on the other side, specialize in original, technically advanced domestic companies for key upstream components such as dilution refrigerators and quantum measurement/control.
Risk warning and disclaimerThe market involves risk, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account users’ specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their circumstances. Investments undertaken on this basis are at your own risk. ```