Quickly becoming a "red ocean," the "scarcity premium" disappears, and "digital currency treasury companies" enter an "involution mode."

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Cryptocurrency treasury companies are entering an intense "player vs. player" competition stage, and the scarcity premium once enjoyed by early adopters has disappeared. The Coinbase research team stated, the era of easy money and guaranteed net asset value premiums is over; success will increasingly depend on execution, differentiated strategies, and timing.

According to the latest Coinbase research report, digital asset treasury companies have reached a critical inflection point and are no longer in the early adoption phase. Early movers like MicroStrategy previously enjoyed significant premiums over net asset value, but increased competition, execution risks, and regulatory constraints have led to a compression of these premiums.

Currently, bitcoin-dedicated digital asset treasuries hold over 1 million bitcoins, accounting for about 5% of the token’s circulating supply. Ethereum-dedicated treasuries hold a total of about 4 million ETH, valued at $2.13 billion, accounting for over 4% of the circulating supply. Of these, 154 U.S. public companies raised about $9.84 billion for cryptocurrency purchases in 2025.

The Coinbase research team expects the crypto market to maintain a constructive outlook going into the fourth quarter. Robust liquidity, favorable macro conditions, and positive regulatory developments will continue to provide support. They expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice on September 17 and October 29, which will release idle cash and drive the market higher.

Digital Asset Treasury Market Enters Mature Competitive Stage

The digital asset treasury phenomenon has reached a critical inflection point, Coinbase Head of Research David Duong and analyst Colin Basco noted in a report released Wednesday. The market has entered a "player vs. player" competitive phase, and simply copying the MicroStrategy playbook is no longer enough to guarantee success.

The scarcity premium enjoyed by early adopters has evaporated. Early movers like MicroStrategy previously enjoyed significant premiums over net asset value, but as competition intensifies, execution risk rises, and regulatory constraints tighten, net asset value multiples are being compressed.

At this stage, the success of treasury companies will increasingly rely on execution, differentiation, and timing, rather than simply copying existing strategies. Analysts believe only the most disciplined and strategically positioned players can thrive in this fiercely competitive environment.

Rapid Expansion of Market Size Triggers Regulatory Attention

The market size for digital asset treasuries is expanding rapidly. Bitcoin-dedicated treasuries now hold over 1 million bitcoins, accounting for about 5% of circulating supply. Ethereum-dedicated treasuries hold a total of about 4 million ETH, valued at $2.13 billion, accounting for more than 4% of total circulating supply.

According to media reports in August, 154 U.S. public companies have raised about $9.84 billion for cryptocurrency purchases in 2025, a significant increase from $3.36 billion raised by 10 companies before this year. Capital commitments for other tokens are also growing. Forward Industries recently raised $16.5 million to fund a SOL-based digital asset treasury supported by Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital.

This rapid growth has attracted greater scrutiny from regulators. Recent reports show Nasdaq is ramping up oversight of digital asset treasuries, requiring certain transactions to go through shareholder approval and advocating for enhanced disclosure. However, Nasdaq clarified it has yet to issue any official announcement regarding new rules for digital asset treasuries.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Support Crypto Market Outlook; September Effect No Longer Reliable

The Coinbase research team remains constructive on the crypto market outlook for Q4, expecting strong liquidity, a favorable macro environment, and positive regulatory developments to continue to provide support.

The team anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice on September 17 and October 29, as the US labor market shows signs of weakness. The rate cut expectations will release a significant portion of the $7.4 trillion in money market funds, providing liquidity support for risk assets.

However, if the current inflation path changes significantly, it would pose a risk to the outlook—for example, rising energy prices. OPEC recently agreed to increase oil production again, while oil demand shows signs of a global slowdown. The research team believes that prices are unlikely to cross the threshold that would push the economy toward stagnation.

The Coinbase research team says investors should not rely on the “September effect” as a trading indicator. Bitcoin fell in September for six consecutive years from 2017 to 2022, leaving investors with the impression that the month is “often a bad time to hold risk assets.”

But trading based on this assumption would have led to errors in both 2023 and 2024. Research shows that month factors are not statistically reliable indicators for predicting whether Bitcoin’s monthly log returns will be positive or negative. The research team believes that monthly seasonality is not particularly useful as a trading signal for Bitcoin.

Despite fiercer competition among digital asset treasury companies, the research team expects the crypto market will continue to benefit from the unprecedented capital inflows from these instruments, resulting in excess returns.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market contains risks, and investments must be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users' specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions contained in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own risk. ```