Rare "slow drop, rapid rise"! In this round of rebound, US stocks hit a historic high in just 11 days after falling only 5%-10%.

The US stock market is rewriting history. The S&P 500 index rebounded to a record high in just 11 days after falling less than 10% from its peak—something never seen before in nearly a century of market records.

What makes this rally extraordinary is that it overturns the market adage "stocks take the elevator down and the escalator up"—the long, slow decline from the January peak was completely erased in just two weeks.

The force driving this rapid rebound comes from the resonance of both bulls and bears: extremely bearish market positioning means any improvement in sentiment can trigger a fierce upward move.

Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts continue to raise corporate earnings forecasts, providing fundamental support for the stock market.

Unprecedented: Fastest Rebound After Shallow Correction

According to historical data from investment research firm Bespoke Investment Group dating back to 1928, this is the first time on record that the S&P 500 index has recovered losses and reached a new high within 11 days (or less) after a drop of 5% to 10%.

"This rebound is indeed extraordinary," said Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey. "There have been similar-sized gains before, but they usually don’t occur this close to market highs. The market typically needs to fall further before such a rally happens."

This historical comparison reveals that V-shaped rebounds themselves are not uncommon, but the conditions that trigger them are. This time, occurring amid a very limited decline, makes it unique in market history.

Position Reset: Extreme Bearishness Plants Seeds of Rebound

Analysts have listed several factors to explain the unusual strength of this rebound, the most direct of which is position structure.

Wall Street analysts at institutions like JPMorgan and Vanda Research previously pointed out that retail investors did not aggressively buy the dip during this downturn as they had in the past. Meanwhile, models from institutions like Deutsche Bank showed that professional investors and systematic funds have begun to return their stock exposure to neutral levels.

Late last week, Goldman Sachs analysts warned that CTA funds could be ready to buy tens of billions of dollars worth of stocks under almost all foreseeable scenarios.

"When positions are extremely bearish, even a slight improvement in investor sentiment can ignite a sharp rally," said Ameriprise Chief Market Strategist Anthony Saglimbene in a written comment to MarketWatch.

Upward Earnings Forecasts Provide Fundamental Support

Another explanation, with more fundamental investment significance, is that Wall Street analysts continued to raise corporate earnings forecasts even when market sentiment was weak earlier this year.

Glenn Dorsey, Head of Client Portfolio Management at Clark Capital Management, pointed out that from a long-term chart perspective, the S&P 500’s price movement and expected earnings usually align closely. "But when these two lines diverge significantly, it often signals an attractive buying opportunity."

There are other factors influencing the market this year. "Panic trading" in the field of artificial intelligence previously hit software and professional services stocks hard, and doubts about returns from large-scale AI investments also continued to weigh on the stock prices of "hyperscale" cloud companies such as Microsoft.

In addition, Dorsey said that investors have recently begun to accept a view: compared to the past, the US economy is now more resilient to surges in oil prices. Improvements in energy efficiency and a significant increase in domestic production in the US are expected to cushion, to some extent, the impact of rising global energy prices.

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