Rate cut expectations and government reopening optimism boost risk assets; Nasdaq futures rise 0.5%, U.S. Treasuries advance, gold retreats.

Rate cut expectations and government reopening optimism boost risk assets; Nasdaq futures rise 0.5%, U.S. Treasuries advance, gold retreats.

Weak U.S. employment data has strengthened market expectations for Fed rate cuts, and the Senate's passage of a temporary bill has led markets to believe the U.S. government may soon reopen. Optimism is driving broad gains in risk assets.

On November 12, U.S. stock index futures rose collectively, most Asian stock indexes were up, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, and the U.S. Dollar Index ended a five-day losing streak with a modest uptick. Commodities showed divergent trends: spot silver rose, spot gold weakened, crude oil prices fell, and cryptocurrencies continued to pull back.

The market focus is on Wednesday's vote about reopening the government. During the U.S. government shutdown, private data such as ADP has been closely watched. Investors are preparing for the possible concentrated release of delayed economic data once government agencies reopen. Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management said:

"As government functions resume, we expect economic data to become clearer, which is an important step in assessing the underlying strength of U.S. economic activity. Investors are adjusting their positions based on a range of positive factors."

Key market movements are as follows:

U.S. stock index futures rose collectively: S&P 500 futures up 0.26%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.5%, Dow Jones futures up over 0.1%.Nikkei 225 closed up 0.4%, Korea Composite Stock Price Index up over 1%.10-year U.S. Treasury fell 3 basis points to 4.08%Dollar Index rose by 0.03% to 99.48; Japanese yen against the dollar fell to 154.79, its lowest since FebruarySpot silver rose 1% to $51/oz, spot gold fell 0.2% to $4118/oz, WTI crude oil down nearly 0.4% to $60.75/barrelBitcoin fell 1.4% to $103,316/coin, Ethereum fell by over 2.8%

Weak U.S. employment data has reinforced expectations of Fed rate cuts, driving up U.S. equity index futures, with Nasdaq futures rising 0.5%. If the publication of economic data resumes after the government reopens, it could further strengthen market expectations for accommodative policy.

According to data released Tuesday by ADP Research, during the four weeks ending October 25, U.S. companies averaged 11,250 layoffs per week. Recently, many companies have announced layoff plans one after another, raising concerns in the market about the labor market. According to a previous Challenger report, the number of layoffs announced by employers in October hit a more than 20-year high, reflecting possible structural weakening in the U.S. labor market.

Overnight gains in U.S. stocks boosted sentiment in Asian markets; Nikkei 225 closed up 0.4%, Korea Composite Stock Price Index rose over 1%. Sector performance diverged significantly: driven by expectations that the long U.S. government shutdown may end this week, cyclical and economically sensitive sectors generally outperformed, while technology performed relatively weakly.

The yen against the dollar fell to 154.79, the lowest since February. After Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki made a statement, the decline narrowed to around 154.6. According to a Wallstreetcn article, market analysis believes the risk of Japanese government intervention in the exchange rate is rising. Goldman Sachs reports Japanese authorities are unlikely to enter the market immediately; current yen depreciation does not yet meet conventional trigger conditions for intervention. The likelihood of action will rise significantly only when the dollar-yen rate reaches the 161-162 range.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4118/oz.

Spot silver rose 1% to $51/oz.

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