Record-breaking net export of 5.9 million barrels of crude oil per day—how long can the US keep oil prices down?

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The United States is acting as the “lender of last resort” for the global oil market with unprecedented export levels.

Last week, the U.S. released more than 1.23 million barrels per day of crude oil from the SPR in a single week, setting a record high. Over the past four weeks, the average net export of U.S. crude oil and refined products reached as high as 5.9 million barrels per day, setting a historic record and almost doubling from 3.3 million barrels per day a year ago.

This has led, in the past month, the comprehensive delivered cost of a barrel of WTI crude oil arriving in Europe to plummet from nearly $160 to $106.

According to Bloomberg’s calculations, at the current rate of release, the authorized remaining quota can last about 117 days, until early September; even if the release rate increases to 2 million barrels per day, it can still be maintained until the end of July.

However, U.S. oil reserves are fundamentally different from the Fed’s printing press. A Bloomberg opinion column points out that Trump probably has a window in late May and June; after that, the continued depletion of the SPR and growing pressure on commercial inventories will start to raise market concerns about supply sustainability.

Collective export surge from the Americas, with the U.S. as the absolute main force

In response to the supply gap caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Americas, led by the U.S., have accelerated crude oil exports overall.

Compared to the same period in 2025, the combined net exports from the Americas increased by nearly 4 million barrels per day, about a quarter of the gap caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

In this increment, the U.S. leads with a net export increase of 2.6 million barrels per day.

Other countries also contributed: Canada increased by 400,000 barrels per day; Venezuela, Guyana, Colombia, and Argentina each increased by about 200,000 barrels per day, and Brazil by about 100,000 barrels per day.

The export surge has had a significant impact on the physical oil price. Previously, Brent futures were trading at a record premium of over $35/barrel above the physical Brent spot benchmark; now this premium has narrowed to under $5.

SPR release sets record, pace exceeds market expectations

The key to this surge in U.S. exports is the much larger-than-expected draw on the SPR.

In March this year, the U.S. coordinated a joint release of reserves with its allies, promising to lend 172 million barrels of crude from SPR, which has already flowed to markets such as the Netherlands, Italy, and Turkey.

The market had originally predicted the SPR’s actual release rate could hardly approach 1 million barrels per day, but the actual figure has exceeded 1.23 million barrels per day, a historic weekly high.

This means that about half of the increase in U.S. net exports is achieved through drawing down strategic reserves, not entirely by increasing production.

As of last week, since Trump began tapping the SPR, about 31 million barrels have been cumulatively released.

If the authorized 172 million barrels are fully released, the remaining SPR reserves will drop to about 242 million barrels, hitting the lowest level since the early 1980s.

Trump could order further releases, but Bloomberg points out that pushing an already weakened SPR to its limits could backfire and trigger market panic.

Once SPR resources become tight, whether the U.S. can make up the gap through commercial inventories and shale capacity expansion becomes the market’s core focus.

As for commercial inventories, at the start of the export surge, U.S. commercial crude inventories were above the five-year average and slightly below the ten-year average, leaving some room for adjustment.

As for shale capacity, U.S. shale drillers will increase output, starting with quickly fracking drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs), but the substantial impact on total exports is not expected to be seen until the last few months of this year, making it hard to compensate for the shortfall in the short term.

The White House’s available window: May to June

Taken together, the current timetable is relatively clear.

Bloomberg’s view is that the U.S. still has operational leeway in late May and likely extending into June, during which SPR drawdown and commercial inventory pressure are not enough to trigger systemic market anxiety.

This window should, in theory, provide the White House with a buffer period to reach an agreement on the Iran issue.

But once the window closes, the additional supply sources the U.S. relies upon will shrink sharply, and the risk of renewed oil price pressure will rise.

As Bloomberg puts it: the Federal Reserve can add another blank stack to start the printing press, but the U.S. oil tanks do not enjoy the same privilege.

Risk warning and disclaimerThe market bears risks, investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any individual user. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions herein apply to their specific circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk. ```