Record-high US stock call option volume! Goldman Sachs partner warns: Chips have gone crazy

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The U.S. stock options market is staging a historic frenzy, and insiders at Goldman Sachs have begun issuing warnings.

On Thursday, the nominal trading volume of S&P 500 Index (SPX) call options surpassed $2.6 trillion, setting a historic record, with nearly 60% of all SPX options traded that day being calls. Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs’ One-Delta trading desk, characterized the current U.S. stock market as a "chase-the-rally mode with spot prices rising and volatility increasing."

Meanwhile, the weekly RSI of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has risen to its highest level since 1999. A Goldman Sachs partner remarked, "It feels like we are in a semi-irrational chase mode."

The rally in tech stocks continues to spread. SoftBank soared 18% in the Japanese market that day (catching up on gains missed during the prior week’s holiday), and all AI-related sectors attracted widespread capital inflows. The latest progress between xAI and Anthropic is seen by the market as evidence of still intense demand for advanced computing power, and the interconnectedness of the AI infrastructure ecosystem is deepening.

Options Market: A Historic Day

The U.S. stock options market broke several records on Thursday. According to Goldman Sachs trader Brian Garrett, the nominal trading volume of SPX call options reached as high as $2.6 trillion, a historic high, with call options accounting for nearly 60% of total SPX options traded that day.

QQQ’s implied volatility surged rapidly as the market rose, and its spread with SPX volatility has widened to over 6 volatility points. Goldman Sachs' volatility trading desk described this day as "one of the craziest trading days in recent weeks," with the parallel rise in spot prices and volatility continuing to reinforce the trend.

Notably, the number of S&P 500 constituent stocks experiencing moves greater than three standard deviations in a single day reached 35, the highest level since February 3 this year.

Chip Stocks: The Ghost of 1999

The breakout rally in the semiconductor sector is nearly vertical. SOX’s weekly RSI has reached an unprecedented high since 1999, prompting market observers to recall the eve of the tech bubble at the end of the last century.

Rich Privorotsky cites 1999 as a more appropriate historical analogy—back then, telecom equipment suppliers had overwhelming order volumes, providing a "real bottleneck narrative" to support that rally. Today’s logic surrounding computing power scarcity and AI infrastructure deployment is highly similar.

BofA's Global Equity Derivatives Research team also pointed out that the latest record-setting rally in the S&P 500 is reminiscent of the late 1920s and the 1990s internet bubble, yet the market’s pricing of "tail options" remains below the level implied by realized volatility.

Goldman Sachs warns that "rising spot/rising volatility" dynamics are limiting the room for systematic strategies to increase exposure further — Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are already basically maxed out on longs, and as realized volatility rises on the upside, the marginal demand from volatility control strategies is waning.

AI Narrative: Computing Power Scarcity Drives the Rally

The core narrative driving this rally is the market's broad consensus over the supply bottleneck in AI computing power.

The latest cooperation between xAI and Anthropic attracted widespread attention overnight, interpreted by the market as two layers: First, demand for advanced computing power remains extremely robust, with companies accelerating optimization of computing efficiency and capacity acquisition; Second, more participants are joining the AI infrastructure and inference market, with new scalable players emerging alongside hyperscale cloud providers.

Investors continue to add positions in AI-related sectors, and the U.S. market as a whole is dominated by buying.

Consumer Differentiation: No Luxury Mansion Renovations, But Takeout Orders Continue

In stark contrast to the tech stock frenzy is the increasingly obvious structural differentiation in the consumer sector.

Whirlpool (WHR) plunged 16% after hours Thursday, with management describing the current environment as "rapidly deteriorating macro conditions," and announcing decisive steps such as price increases and accelerated cost cuts to restore profitability. The chill in housing and big-ticket consumer goods starkly contrasts with the heat in the semiconductor sector.

By comparison, DoorDash said the second quarter had a "good start," with demand "still quite strong," and shares rose about 10%.

This differentiation reflects the deep logic of current consumer behavior: Large expenditures (such as renovations and appliances) feel like they’re going through a recession, while small, instant purchases (like takeout) are barely affected. Consumers haven’t disappeared — they have simply become highly selective.

Oil Prices and Iran: Negotiations Continue

Oil prices experienced a sharp correction Thursday on news about Iran nuclear talks. A reported 14-point memorandum includes major concessions by Iran, such as moving uranium materials out of the country, suspending uranium enrichment for 20 years, and dismantling underground facilities.

However, there is still ambiguity about the "full reopening" of the Strait of Hormuz, and information from IRGC-related channels suggests that transit arrangements will be coordinated through specific route structures. Iran was expected to respond that day, but its overall attitude was more restrained than expected.

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