Report: Despite the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+ leading countries still expect to raise the July oil production target.

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The Iran war has severely hit Gulf production capacity, with oil export channels disrupted, but OPEC+ core members are still expected to continue pushing the production increase agenda at the June 7 meeting.

According to Reuters citing four informed sources, seven core OPEC+ oil producers will hold a meeting on June 7 and are expected to reach an agreement on the July production target, with a proposed increase of about 188,000 barrels per day. All sources requested anonymity and emphasized that the final decision has not yet been made.

OPEC data shows that, affected by the Iran war, OPEC+’s overall production has plunged from 42.77 million barrels per day in February this year to 33.19 million barrels in April, with Gulf producers reducing production by 9.9 million barrels in a single month. Despite actual deliveries being hampered, the alliance has raised production targets for several consecutive months since April.

War Impact on Spare Capacity

The deeper impact of the Iran war on OPEC+ is that the affected exporting countries are precisely those within the alliance that possess idle capacity and can expand supply when needed—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the recently departed UAE.

This means that even if the alliance continues to raise targets, the actual room for increased production remains severely constrained under the wartime backdrop.

Three OPEC+ related meetings will be held simultaneously on June 7, and according to informed sources, the other two meetings involving broader membership are not expected to make any policy changes.

UAE Exit Compresses Monthly Increase

Since the UAE left OPEC+, the alliance’s monthly output increase has narrowed. According to analysts and participants, the UAE’s departure has weakened the alliance’s overall influence on the market, but on the other hand, it may help to strengthen internal cohesion among members.

The seven core members attending the June 7 meeting include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. These seven countries previously maintained their output unchanged until Q1 2026 and began a series of monthly increases starting in April.

It is worth noting that the alliance-wide agreement reached in 2022 to cut output by 2 million barrels per day is planned to be maintained until the end of 2026. The agreement originally allocated a reduction quota of 160,000 barrels per day to the UAE, but with UAE’s departure, relevant arrangements have been adjusted.

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