Report: OpenAI had 35 million paid users as of July, projected to reach 220 million by 2030.

OpenAI expects that by 2030, the number of ChatGPT paid users will reach 220 million, with annual revenue approaching $200 billion. This robust growth forecast will push the company's valuation up to $500 billion, surpassing giants like ExxonMobil and Netflix.

On November 25, according to The Information citing informed sources, as of July this year, ChatGPT's paid user count had reached about 35 million.

The report quotes internal company forecasts stating that OpenAI’s goal is to raise ChatGPT’s weekly paid user conversion rate from the current about 5% to 8.5% in five years.

The core of this growth strategy is to replicate the successful path of enterprise software like Slack and Zoom. By attracting huge numbers of individual users through popular free versions, they then persuade employers to purchase more powerful enterprise-level subscription services.

However, Google's recent aggressive counterattack with its upgraded Gemini 3 model has intensified market competition. At the same time, data shows fluctuations in ChatGPT's user growth rate, and the company is also facing issues such as a slight decline in user time due to content restriction measures.

Targeting enterprise users, replicating the success paths of Slack and Zoom

Analysis believes OpenAI's growth path is clear and direct.

First, use the massive base built among individual users by the free version of ChatGPT as a stepping stone to open the door to the enterprise market.

As more and more employees use ChatGPT at work, this drives company-level purchasing decisions. Currently, ChatGPT's weekly active users exceed 800 million.

This model is highly similar to the rise of video conferencing company Zoom and communication app Slack a decade ago. They first became popular among professionals through free products, paving the way for commercial subscriptions to decision-makers in enterprises.

Although enterprise users currently account for a small proportion of ChatGPT subscriptions, the growth momentum is significant. OpenAI revealed earlier this month that 7 million enterprise users now use ChatGPT through its business plans.

These plans include ChatGPT Business for small and medium-sized enterprises and ChatGPT Enterprise for large companies, providing enhanced security and compliance features to clients such as Canva and PwC, and integrating with enterprise tools like Slack, Google Drive, and GitHub.

According to reports, the experience of Docket.io co-founder and CEO Arjun Pillai vividly demonstrates the effectiveness of this strategy.

He has personally been a paid user for over two years and this year upgraded his subscription from $20 to $200 per month. A few months ago, he also purchased ChatGPT Business subscriptions for his employees, attracted by its integration capabilities with software like HubSpot and Slack, as well as convenient collaborative functions.

Subscription revenue drives soaring valuation, but growth faces challenges

Strong subscription revenue prospects are key to supporting OpenAI’s high valuation.

The company forecasts that by the end of 2030, its annual revenue will reach nearly $200 billion, of which ChatGPT subscription revenue will contribute about $87 billion. In contrast, total revenue and ChatGPT subscription revenue this year are expected to be about $13 billion and $10 billion, respectively.

However, growth prospects come with challenges. The most direct threat comes from Google, whose release of Gemini 3 is seen as a strong comeback in the AI field.

Additionally, ChatGPT’s user growth has shown volatility. According to informed sources cited in the report, its weekly active user count grew 42% month on month in January this year, but by September, monthly growth had slowed to 13%.

According to the Sources newsletter, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar admitted in a call with investors earlier this month that since content restrictions were introduced in August (such as banning flirting with users under 18), user time has slightly declined.

To address this issue, the company plans to launch age verification software by December, allowing adult users to interact with the chatbot on a wider range of topics.

Comparing competitors, consolidating platform advantages

Despite challenges, ChatGPT remains dominant in the chatbot market.

As of September this year, its weekly active user count was more than three times that of the previous year, far exceeding the 650 million monthly active users reported by Google Gemini in the third quarter. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told employees at the end of last month:

I believe we are in a completely leading position in building the AI platform that people default to using.

OpenAI's business model also stands in stark contrast to major competitors. Its competitor Anthropic derives about 80% of its revenue from selling model access via API (Application Programming Interface), while subscription revenue is relatively small.

According to forecasts, Anthropic's API sales this year will be about twice that of OpenAI’s comparable business, but subscription revenue from its Claude chatbot is only one-tenth that of ChatGPT.

It is reported that looking ahead, OpenAI plans to generate revenue through new products such as advertising or shopping commissions, with the goal of making these account for about one-fifth of total company revenue by 2030.

Mentioned in Wallstreetcn, the company announced on Monday that it will launch a personal shopping assistant for ChatGPT users, which may become its first step in exploring new business models.

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