Report: TSMC to raise 3nm prices by 15% in the second half of the year, may increase by another 10% next year
TSMC’s pricing power for advanced processes continues to strengthen, with the supply chain sending signals of a new round of price hikes.
On May 27, according to Taiwan’s "Industrial and Commercial Times," supply chain sources said that TSMC plans to raise prices again for its 3nm process in the second half of this year, with increases of up to 15%, and a possible further rise of 5% to 10% next year. This round of price hikes is not due to any single customer ramping up orders, but reflects a fundamental shift in supply-demand structure for advanced processes in the AI era.
On the demand side, cloud giants such as Nvidia, AMD, Google, and AWS are accelerating the adoption of 3nm, while demand for AI accelerators, custom ASICs, and flagship smartphone chips is pouring in simultaneously, keeping 3nm capacity fully loaded. On the supply side, rising overseas fab costs, increased depreciation pressure, and improving yield rates still ramping up for 2nm production have all contributed to this price increase. The market expects this move will help TSMC maintain its gross margin performance.
Meanwhile, MSCI’s latest semiannual adjustment will take effect after market close on May 29. TSMC will see the largest weighting increase in the MSCI Taiwan Index, up 0.56 percentage points to 58.33%, which is expected to attract continuous passive capital inflows. TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei will also address AI demand, advanced processes, and overseas expansion at the shareholder meeting on June 4, which the market is watching closely.
Structural Changes in Supply-Demand Drive Price Increases
The core logic behind this round of 3nm price increases lies in a fundamental expansion of demand sources.
According to the report, ASIC makers pointed out that in the past, demand for 3nm processes was mainly driven by smartphone SoCs, with a relatively single demand structure. But as the AI server platform upgrade cycle fully kicks off, Nvidia, AMD, Google, AWS, and other cloud service providers are rapidly adopting 3nm, leading to a surge in wafer demand. In particular, large cloud firms have actively invested in self-developed ASICs in recent years to reduce their dependence on general-purpose GPUs, further broadening demand sources for 3nm and keeping advanced process supply tight.
Supply chain insiders revealed that TSMC’s main 3nm Fab18 maintains high utilization, and customer queues have not eased significantly. Wafer data shows that at the beginning of this year, monthly 3nm capacity was about 130,000 wafers, and in the second quarter it has gradually increased to between 160,000 and 175,000 wafers. However, even with continuous capacity expansion, the growth in AI demand remains far ahead of market expectations, making short-term supply gaps hard to bridge.
3nm: Optimal Node for AI Mass Production
In the competition landscape for advanced processes, 3nm has established itself as the core node for mass production of AI chips.
According to reports, compared to 2nm, which is still in the early yield ramp-up stage, 3nm offers AI clients greater advantages in production stability and cost control, making it the most mature and reliable advanced process option currently available.
Market analysts believe that as the global AI computing power race heats up, the competition for advanced processes has evolved from mere technological iteration to a comprehensive contest of capacity scale, yield levels, and supply chain integration capabilities, with TSMC holding a clear lead in all these aspects.
Additionally, rising costs from overseas fab building, heavier depreciation burdens, and yield investments in early-stage 2nm mass production all provide reasonable grounds for TSMC to raise 3nm prices and help stabilize gross margins during expansion phases.
MSCI Weight Increase Plus Shareholder Meeting Catalyst
On the capital market front, multiple factors are providing short-term support for TSMC.
MSCI’s latest semiannual adjustment officially takes effect after the close on May 29. TSMC sees the largest single weighting increase in the MSCI Taiwan Index, up 0.56 percentage points, with its total weight rising to 58.33%.
Currently, foreign investors hold up to 70.35% of TSMC shares; the market believes that as passive capital continues to flow back, TSMC is expected to gain momentum from a new round of funds.
At the same time, Morgan Stanley Securities also invited TSMC to attend its investor briefing. At the June 4 shareholder meeting, Chairman C.C. Wei is expected to systematically explain AI demand prospects, advanced process layouts, and overseas expansion plans. The market remains highly focused on TSMC’s future direction.
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