Report: US-Iran conflict disrupts OPEC+ production expansion schedule, capacity review postponed to mid-November
OPEC+ capacity reviews have been delayed because the US-Israel war on Iran has disrupted plans for several expansion projects in the Middle East, creating uncertainty about member countries' future production potential. This delay will directly impact the alliance's process for setting 2027 oil production quotas.
According to Reuters, citing two sources familiar with the matter, the deadline for completing the capacity review has been postponed from the end of September 2026 to mid-November.
Meanwhile, DeGolyer and MacNaughton, the US oil consulting firm responsible for production capacity estimates for OPEC+ members excluding Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, is expected to submit its report to OPEC only in mid-November. This timeline still theoretically allows OPEC+ to discuss the results at its plenary meeting in late November.
This delay has further complicated the already politically sensitive quota negotiations within OPEC+. The results of independent capacity assessments will directly determine the approved production caps for each member country, and some members have already shown significant disagreements on the quota issue , putting pressure on the stability of the alliance.
On Friday, the G7 decided to release 100 million barrels of emergency oil reserves, starting with a large-scale release of diesel over the first 20 days. US crude oil prices fell by more than 5% at one point, but later rebounded, and were down 3.33% as of press time.
The war disrupted expansion plans, and the gap in production capacity data needs to be filled.
The Middle East conflict has delayed projects aimed at increasing production capacity in some OPEC+ countries, making it difficult to accurately assess the actual oil production capacity of these countries. Furthermore, not all member countries have submitted the data required for the review.
OPEC+ initiated this review process as early as the end of 2025, requiring all member countries to conduct a capacity inventory as a basis for setting the production baseline for 2027.
At its plenary meeting in June this year, the alliance reiterated the importance of completing the Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC) assessment and explicitly stated that it would serve as a benchmark for production in 2027.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday, as quoted by the Russian state news agency TASS, that OPEC+ countries are continuing to assess maximum production levels, but did not provide further details on the delays.
The results of capacity assessment directly affect quota allocation.
The core objective of this review is to provide an independent and updated assessment of each member country's sustainable oil production capacity, a key reference indicator in previous production target negotiations. If expansion plans are hampered by war, the basis for the relevant countries' capacity assessments will be shaken, thereby affecting their future quota levels.
The results of capacity assessments have a direct and significant impact on the interests of member countries: countries assessed as having low capacity may face pressure to reduce their quotas, while producing countries that have successfully expanded their capacity will seek to secure higher production allocations.
This logic has been confirmed in recent alliance developments. The UAE had long demanded that OPEC+ increase its production quota, citing increased capacity requirements, but withdrew from the alliance in May of this year after its demands were not fully met.
As previously reported, Iraq is also seeking a higher quota and has considered leaving OPEC. The current delays and uncertainties surrounding capacity reviews have further escalated these tensions, posing a new test to the cohesion within OPEC+.
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