Reproducing a 1,350% Stock Price Surge? Tesla’s "Ambition," Investors’ "Wish," and the Upcoming Key Milestones

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After the highly anticipated shareholders' meeting, Tesla not only secured a sky-high compensation package for its CEO, Elon Musk, but also painted a grand blueprint for the market that spans AI, robotics, and autonomous driving. Investors’ attention is now focused on whether the company can turn its ambitions into the next growth miracle.

According to Wind Chasing Trading Desk, a report published by Goldman Sachs on November 7 shows that at Tesla’s annual shareholders’ meeting on November 6, the 2025 CEO incentive plan received more than 75% approval and obtained preliminary endorsement.

The ambition of this incentive plan is striking: it will grant Musk up to 12% of the current total equity in new shares over a maximum of 10 years, depending on the achievement of a series of very challenging market value and operational milestones, with a total value potentially as high as $1 trillion. These milestones include increasing the company’s market value from $2 trillion to $8.5 trillion, and operational goals such as delivering a cumulative total of 1 million robots and operating 1 million Robotaxis.

For the market, this is not just a compensation plan. The report points out that investors are viewing this new scheme through the “lens” of the 2018 incentive plan. From the announcement of that plan in January 2018 to September 4, 2025, Tesla’s stock price soared by about 1,350%, while the S&P 500 index only rose about 130% in the same period. Therefore, the market generally expects that this new “trillion dollar bet” could again become a powerful catalyst driving Tesla’s stock price into a new upward cycle.

More Than Cars: Tesla's Robotics, Autonomous Driving and Chip Map

At this shareholder meeting, Tesla clearly demonstrated its positioning far beyond that of a mere car company. The Goldman Sachs report detailed its extensive product roadmap:

Optimus Humanoid Robot: Management reiterated plans to begin production of the V3 version in 2026, and aim to introduce V4 and V5 in 2027 and 2028, respectively. The company plans to build a production line for 1 million units per year in Fremont, and another for 10 million units per year in Texas. Its long-term goal is to manufacture “one hundred million or even a billion robots” annually. The report stated that after mass production (e.g. over 1 million units), Optimus’ unit production cost (COGS) could drop to about $20,000.
Full Self-Driving (FSD): Tesla expects that FSD technology may allow users to text while driving in the next 1-2 months. Additionally, the company mentioned that version 14.3 might allow customers to sleep in the car. In China, the company is striving to obtain full approval by February or March next year.
Robotaxi and Automotive Business: The company reiterated its expectation of removing safety operators from the Robotaxi service in Austin before the end of this year. Cybercab is expected to enter production in April next year. At the same time, Tesla has set ambitious capacity targets, hoping to increase annualized car production capacity by 50% by the end of next year, i.e., rounding out 2026 at an annualized rate of 2.6-2.7 million vehicles, and striving to reach 4 million annualized capacity by the end of 2027.
Semiconductor Ambitions: Tesla plans to produce its AI5 chips in collaboration with Samsung and TSMC at four locations, and hopes to begin production of the AI6 chip less than a year after AI5 goes into production. To meet future massive chip demand, the company is even considering building its own wafer fabs.

From Vision to Reality: Four Key Milestones the Market Will Closely Watch

A grand blueprint needs solid steps for verification. The Goldman Sachs report emphasized that after the incentive plan is approved, investors’ focus will quickly shift to Tesla’s actual progress on these goals. The following four key milestones will be the "touchstones" for the market to assess Tesla’s execution in the coming months:

Austin Robotaxi Progress: Whether safety operators can be removed as planned before year-end will be the first important signal of its commercialization capability.
Personal FSD “Hands-Free”: When truly unsupervised personal FSD becomes available (such as allowing texting or sleeping), it will be key to assessing the maturity of its AI technology.
Q4 Delivery Volume: The delivery data expected to be released in early January next year will directly reflect the fundamental health of its core automotive business.
Optimus V3 Debut: The company hinted on its Q3 earnings call that Optimus V3 could be released at the end of the first quarter next year, which will offer the outside world an important window into the real progress of its robotics business.

Although Tesla’s prospects are exciting, Goldman Sachs analysts maintained a “neutral” rating in the report, considering their profit expectations for the autonomous driving and robotics businesses more “cautious” than the company’s targets, and citing several downside risks including increased market competition, product delays, and slowing EV demand.

Goldman Sachs set a 12-month price target of $400 for Tesla, which, compared to the stock price of $445.91 at the time of the report, implies a potential downside space of 10.3%.

2018 “Moonshot Award” Compensation

Wallstreetcn wrote that in 2018, Tesla shareholders voted to approve a highly challenging compensation plan, granting Musk a large-scale stock option package, contingent on the company achieving specific goals.

This unprecedented agreement was originally valued at $2.6 billion, but by early 2024, when it was halted by a Delaware court in the US, its value had soared to $56 billion. Data shows that at one point the plan’s market value exceeded $100 billion, fluctuating dramatically alongside Tesla’s valuation.

However, this compensation plan was invalidated due to a shareholder lawsuit and is currently under appeal. The final outcome may still take several months to be determined.

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The above exciting content is from Wind Chasing Trading Desk.

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