Republican Midterm Prospects Under Pressure: High Oil Prices Overshadow Tax Cut Benefits, Trump Shifts Focus to Economic Issues

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Soaring oil prices are eroding the political gains brought by Trump's tax cut bill, and Republicans' concerns about the midterm elections are mounting day by day.

According to Reuters, Trump will visit Nevada and Arizona this week for campaign-style tours, aiming to boost Republican morale and promote his tax and immigration bills. However, the Middle East conflict has pushed up oil prices, and the comprehensive rise in living costs such as food, housing, and insurance is shaking the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and weakening Trump's ability to garner votes for Republican candidates.

The report says five Republican strategists indicated that the White House has lost dominance on the issue of living costs, and the political tailwind from the tax cut bill and economic resilience is gradually being offset. Trump’s approval rating fell to 36% in the Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in late March, marking a new low in his second term.

Meanwhile, according to the authoritative election forecasting agency Cook Political Report, the Democrats have become the overwhelming favorite to regain the majority of seats in the House; crucial Senate seats in North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and even the conservative stronghold of Nebraska are gradually tilting toward the Democrats.

Tax Cut Gains Eroded by Oil Prices, Republican Strategists Concerned

The core agenda of Trump’s trip is to host a roundtable meeting in Las Vegas focused on the “tip tax exemption” policy, promoting the practical benefits of his 2025 tax law to workers in the restaurant, hotel, and casino industries.

According to the bill, eligible workers can deduct up to $25,000 in tip income from federal taxes, but must still pay payroll taxes, and benefits for high-income earners will gradually decrease. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday that over 53 million taxpayers have already enjoyed at least one of the signature Trump tax policies this tax season, with an average refund of over $3,400.

However, many Republican strategists are not optimistic. David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, remarked, “Living costs overwhelm everything—not a pun—including any slight improvement in refunds.” Another Republican strategist involved in Congressional election consulting said directly, the political effects of the tax bill “have already been flattened.”

Middle East Conflict Pushes Up Oil Prices, Few Policy Tools Remain

High oil prices are currently the core political vulnerability faced by Republicans. Brent crude is now over $96 per barrel, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, and global oil supply is disrupted. Citing informed sources, even if the conflict ends, global oil producers may need weeks to restore production, meaning rising fuel prices will continue to transmit to various goods and services, forming sticky inflationary pressure.

The White House’s policy leeway to lower energy prices is very limited. According to sources familiar with internal White House discussions, the administration has tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, adjusted shipping rules, and eased sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, but oil prices remain high. “The rest are all bad options, we have already advised the White House not to take these actions,” an oil industry executive involved in the discussions said.

Trump's statements on oil prices have been inconsistent, sometimes suggesting Americans might have to endure high oil prices for a long time, other times claiming prices will fall sharply after the war ends. White House spokesman Kush Desai said Trump has always been honest about the short-term economic impact of the Iran war and stressed the government has never lost focus on advancing domestic living cost agendas.

White House Steps Up Support for Midterms, Trump Downplays Fears of Defeat

Faced with increasingly severe election prospects, the White House has begun to strengthen support for the midterm elections. Trump announced last week he will send senior adviser James Blair to assist various midterm campaign teams, widely viewed as a sign the White House’s concerns about party prospects are deepening.

Both Nevada and Arizona have fiercely contested Senate and House seats. Trump will also attend an event held by the conservative group Turning Point USA in Phoenix on Friday. Meanwhile, Trump’s recent public altercation with Pope Leo and criticism over religious-themed self-comparison images posted on social media have to some extent diverted public attention from his economic agenda.

Trump himself is trying to downplay concerns about midterm defeat. “Even if you have a great president, they often lose in the midterms,” he said in a Fox interview Wednesday. “So we must work hard to turn this situation around.”

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