"Retaliation spiral"! The intensity of the Russia-Ukraine confrontation continues to rise, Trump says resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be "much faster than people think."
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Frontline Tug-of-war, Deep Mutual Strikes—Military Experts Interpret Russia-Ukraine High-Intensity Confrontation
Xinhua News Agency reported on July 6 that in recent days, Russia and Ukraine have fallen into a "spiral of retaliation," with the intensity of confrontation continuing to escalate. Russia’s Ministry of Defense said on social media on the 6th that Russian forces launched intensive strikes on multiple areas in Ukraine in response to Ukrainian attacks on civilian facilities inside Russian territory.
Military experts believe that the current core operational goal of the Russian army is to seize the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk towns group in the Donetsk region, while the Ukrainian side mainly relies on drones and other equipment to strike Russian energy targets, attempting to pressure Russia from the livelihood front. In the short term, Russia-Ukraine confrontation will show a tug-of-war in frontline offense and defense, with mutual long-range strikes on logistical targets.
Mutual Offense and Defense
In recent days, Russia and Ukraine have been in a state of high-intensity confrontation. On the frontline, the Russian side continues to advance ground positions. Russian President Putin stated on the 3rd that Russian forces are accelerating their offensive across the entire front line, continuing to eliminate Ukrainian forces in the Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions. The work to establish security zones in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions is proceeding as planned.
On the same day, Putin also announced major progress by Russian forces in Donetsk, controlling the strategic military stronghold of Konstantinovka. Analysts believe that, given the Ukrainian army’s in-depth, tiered defensive systems in Konstantinovka, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and other locations, this Russian progress is of strategic significance. However, the Ukrainian side stated the next day that the Russian claims are not true and that Konstantinovka remains under Ukrainian control.
Both sides have intensified air strikes on deep targets. Ukraine has carried out large-scale drone attacks against Russia, expanding attack targets from Russian military facilities to energy and communications infrastructure, as well as defense industry production and logistical systems. For example, in June, Ukrainian forces used drones to strike multiple energy facilities deep inside Russia, including a natural gas refinery and a helium plant in Orenburg, more than 1200 kilometers from the front line.
Russia has also carried out air strikes on targets inside Ukraine. According to Ukrainian sources, from the evening of July 1 to the early morning of July 2, a total of 51 locations including Kyiv were hit by large-scale missile and drone attacks by Russian forces. Russia stated that in June, its forces carried out five large-scale attacks on Ukraine, targeting cruise missiles, medium and long-range drones, robotic system manufacturers, electronic warfare equipment production enterprises, military airports, and energy fuel facilities.
Respective Considerations
Analysts point out that Russia and Ukraine’s recent simultaneous intensification of offensive actions is motivated by multiple factors, including seizing initiative on the battlefield and balancing domestic and foreign affairs.
From Ukraine’s perspective, it aims to strike Russian infrastructure, logistical hubs, and defense industry production, disrupt Russia’s supply transport and energy guarantees, increase Russia’s war costs, and weaken its frontline combat capability. Ukraine is focused on attacking Russian oil and gas infrastructure, causing fuel supply shortages and rising energy prices in Russia. Russian political analyst Sergei Strokan believes that Ukraine’s aim is to amplify the war’s impact on Russian livelihoods and reduce the Russian public’s tolerance for the conflict.
Additionally, Ukraine hopes to send signals abroad with its current offensives, especially with the NATO summit about to convene. Ukrainian international affairs expert Maksym Yali said Ukraine intends to prove to Western countries that it still has sustained combat capability, dispelling some allies’ doubts over military aid to Ukraine.
The Russian side seeks to strengthen battlefield initiative. The Russian Ministry of Defense’s recently released weekly operations report shows Russian armed forces have carried out several rounds of high-intensity strikes on Ukrainian defense industry facilities and other targets since late June. Russian military experts believe such high-intensity strikes have been rare in recent years, indicating Russia’s capability and determination to advance military operations.
Analysts also point out that, amid increased domestic unrest in Russia triggered by Ukrainian drone attacks, Russia hopes to signal to the domestic public that the battlefield situation remains under control through sustained offensives.
Sustained Tug-of-war
According to the Russian presidential website, Russian forces will continue to advance on multiple fronts. Its Eastern Army Group is advancing west along a broad front in eastern Zaporizhia; its Northern Army Group is expanding "security zones" in Sumy and Kharkiv; the Central Army Group is pushing northward toward the key town of Krasnoarmeysk (called Pokrovsk in Ukrainian) in Donetsk and fighting for the key defensive point of New Pavlovka in that region.
Ukraine is focused on defending towns including Konstantinovka, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkovka in Donetsk.
Ukrainian military experts and media believe Konstantinovka is especially important for Ukraine’s overall defense in Donetsk; if this stronghold falls completely, it will greatly affect the defense situation on the Kramatorsk front. Ukrainian military commentator Oleksandr Kovalenko believes Ukraine’s main operational goal at Konstantinovka is to deplete Russian troops and equipment as much as possible, and the tug-of-war here will continue until the end of summer.
Russia's Baltic News Agency reports that, given continued Western support for Ukrainian drone operations, the scale of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian targets may expand. Risks to transportation and infrastructure, including bridges and ports in Crimea, will also rise.
Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov stated that, besides fighting for frontline positions, disrupting each other's logistics and supply systems in both the front and rear has become the focus of Russia-Ukraine confrontation at this stage. Both sides will further intensify attacks on each other’s transport hubs, equipment warehouses, and energy facilities. Whether they can effectively paralyze the opponent's logistics and supply system may influence the course of the war and even the negotiation process.
Source:Xinhua News Agency
Trump Says Resolving Russia-Ukraine Conflict Will “Be Much Faster Than People Think”
On July 6, U.S. President Trump said at an event that resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict will “be much faster than people think.”
Trump stated that Russian President Putin wants to end the conflict, and his desire is “very strong.” Ukrainian President Zelensky “actually also wants to end the conflict now.” “We will discuss this during the NATO summit. I think we will bring it (the Russia-Ukraine conflict) to an end.”
Source:Xinhua News Agency
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