Risk reignites in the Strait of Hormuz? Qatar LNG tanker hit by missile attack, international oil prices rise slightly

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Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated again. A ship fully loaded with Qatari liquefied natural gas was attacked and caught fire as it was leaving this globally critical energy chokepoint, intensifying market concerns over a longer-than-expected supply disruption, with Brent crude oil and European natural gas prices both rising.

According to Bloomberg, the Qatari national shipping company Nakilat’s LNG carrier Al Rekayyat was hit early Tuesday morning about 8 nautical miles east of Lima, Oman. EOS Risk Group warned that the attack may have been caused by an Iranian suicide drone or missile, causing the ship to catch fire but with no casualties. This is the first Qatari LNG carrier to be attacked since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict at the end of February.

Meanwhile, according to Xinhua News Agency, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran fired at least two missiles at several commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Two vessels were hit and severely damaged, but no casualties were reported.

Impacted by this news, Brent crude oil prices once surged more than 1% to $72.76 per barrel, approaching the $73 mark; European natural gas prices soared as much as 6% in one day, the biggest increase in a month. At the same time, gold prices fell for the second consecutive day, dropping by as much as 1.2% and falling below $4,120 per ounce, as the market's repricing of inflationary pressure brought divergence to the safe-haven logic.

Abnormal Shipping Routes Draw Attention

Previously, the Al Rekayyat was fully loaded and docked at Qatar's Ras Laffan export terminal.

Bloomberg’s vessel tracking data shows that the ship turned off its transponder while sailing near the Strait of Hormuz, indicating its route was not one approved by Iran.

After the attack, another LNG carrier loaded with Qatari LNG, the Al Areesh, suddenly turned around and started circling before entering the strait. Meanwhile, other tankers—including crude oil and LPG carriers—continued to traverse this disputed waterway, using both Iran-approved and US-managed routes.

Kpler analyst Xu Muyu stated that the continued use of different routes by different ships shows that the strait remains passable, but as shipowners implement various routing strategies according to their own risk assessments, overall traffic has become more dispersed.

Return to Normal May Be Slower Than Expected

UBS analyst Justinus Steinhost pointed out that the energy sector led all sectors on Tuesday. The attack on the LNG carrier has again raised market concerns about long-term supply disruptions, and progress in returning traffic volumes in the Strait of Hormuz to normal appears to have stagnated and remains far below pre-conflict levels.

UBS analyst Aditi Samajeepati noted that in the short term, as crude oil from tankers previously stranded in the Strait of Hormuz gradually enters the market, oil prices may remain under pressure. But the Chief Investment Officer of UBS Wealth Management believes the current oil price level overestimates the speed of traffic normalization in the Strait—the full restoration of shipping confidence and the return of tankers to the Persian Gulf for loading will both take time, and the recovery speed of idled oil wells may also be slower than expected.

On the broader economic front, France has lowered its GDP growth expectations for 2026 from 0.9% to 0.7%, citing the impact of Middle East conflict on output growth.

US-Iran Negotiations Face New Uncertainties

The timing of the attack is particularly sensitive. Currently, US-Iran talks are on hold while Tehran holds funeral services for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Qatar has stated the talks will resume after the funeral ends.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Tuesday that if threats persist, negotiations on a final agreement will not begin, referring to a memorandum of understanding signed with the United States. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian meanwhile will travel to Iraq to participate in funeral processions scheduled Wednesday in Najaf and Karbala.

Meanwhile, President Trump will head to Ankara later Tuesday to attend the NATO summit, where the Iran conflict is expected to be a core topic for leaders. Analysts point out this attack is testing the agreement reached at the end of June between the US and Iran intended to prevent further attacks on the Strait of Hormuz.

Market Structure Quietly Shifts

On the trade front, the ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz has prompted some market participants to adjust their strategies in advance. Two supertankers carrying Saudi crude oil departed for the US for the first time since February following the strait’s reopening.

Indian state-owned refineries are negotiating with traders selling Iranian oil and preparing to purchase crude should the US extend the exemption period to August or relax relevant restrictions.

On the Russian front, the average price of Urals crude in western ports in early July has dropped to $41.66 per barrel, returning to pre-war levels and less than half of the highs seen at the peak of April’s oil market turmoil.

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