Samsung: HBM will account for nearly 30% of DRAM capacity next year, and the supply of traditional memory may tighten further.

Samsung: HBM will account for nearly 30% of DRAM capacity next year, and the supply of traditional memory may tighten further.

Samsung Electronics executives predict that the share of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in global DRAM wafer capacity will continue to rise, putting pressure on traditional memory supply and driving overall memory prices further up.

According to Reuters, Samsung Electronics Executive Vice President Kim Taewoo stated that HBM is expected to account for nearly 30% of the global DRAM industry's total wafer capacity next year (2027), up from the current level of approximately 20%. Taewoo also pointed out that HBM shares the same wafer capacity with traditional DRAM, and HBM's continued expansion will further compress the supply space for traditional DRAM.

Market research firm TrendForce predicts that, driven by continued growth in demand for AI servers, competition between HBM and traditional DRAM for advanced process technology and wafer capacity will continue. Coupled with the time required for next-generation product yields and production ramp-up, the memory market supply is expected to remain tight in 2027. TrendForce has raised its 2027 HBM price outlook, predicting a significant 121% year-on-year jump in the blended average selling price (ASP).

Samsung accelerates HBM production capacity expansion, with the HBM4 series dominating shipments.

At the company level, Samsung's HBM capacity expansion is equally impressive. According to industry estimates cited by the Seoul Economic Daily, Samsung's average monthly HBM wafer starts are expected to increase from approximately 180,000 wafers this year to approximately 250,000 wafers in 2027, an increase of nearly 40%.

In terms of product structure, as the mass production scale of HBM4E gradually expands, the HBM4 series products are expected to account for approximately 80% of Samsung's HBM shipments next year, a significant increase from approximately 40% this year. This structural shift means that the weight of higher-priced products in the shipment mix has increased significantly, which will further support the upward shift of the overall selling price.

HBM wafers are three times more efficient than traditional DRAM, amplifying the supply squeeze effect.

The impact of HBM on the supply of traditional DRAM is further amplified by its higher wafer consumption characteristics. According to data from ijiwei.com, HBM consumes approximately three times the wafer area of traditional DRAM—the wafer area occupied by a single HBM chip is roughly equivalent to the area required to produce 3GB of DDR5.

This means that when HBM's share of DRAM capacity increases from 20% to 30%, the actual impact on traditional DRAM supply could be two to three times greater than that change. For downstream markets that rely on traditional DRAM, such as consumer electronics, PCs, and servers, the pressure of tightening supply may be more significant than the surface figures suggest.

Supply remains tight, leading to a significant upward revision of the 2027 HBM price outlook.

Structural shifts in production capacity and continued strong demand are the core drivers of rising memory market prices. TrendForce points out that the persistence of supply constraints, the increased proportion of high-priced products such as HBM4, and the gradual mass production of HBM4E in the second half of 2027 are all key factors driving upward revisions in price expectations.

TrendForce has accordingly raised its 2027 HBM hybrid average selling price forecast, expecting a year-on-year increase of 121%. At the supplier level, TrendForce also noted that major memory manufacturers have generally adopted a more assertive stance in the 2027 HBM pricing negotiations, further confirming market expectations of a tight supply situation.

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