Saudi Arabia reverses its stance; the US may restart the "Freedom Program," raising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz again?

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The Strait of Hormuz crisis is entering a high-risk phase characterized by simultaneous diplomatic mediation and military friction. With a key reversal in the attitudes of Gulf allies, the United States is preparing to restart military escort operations in these waters.

On May 7, according to reports from Xinhua and CCTV News citing Iranian media, the US military struck Iranian coastal civilian areas and oil tankers, after which Iranian armed forces fired missiles at US military vessels in retaliation. It is reported that three US Navy destroyers were attacked and are withdrawing toward the Sea of Oman. The US Central Command stated the US intercepted Iran’s unprovoked attacks and carried out targeted strikes on Iranian military facilities.

Amid a sudden escalation of direct military conflict both inside and outside the Strait, the US is planning to restart escort operations. According to media reports, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lifted restrictions on US military use of their bases and airspace, clearing obstacles for the Trump administration to restart the “Freedom Plan” aimed at restoring commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite intensifying military conflict, negotiations for a short-term ceasefire agreement are still intensively underway. Pakistani and Saudi media have expressed optimistic expectations for reaching an agreement, but meanwhile the US Treasury announced a new round of sanctions against relevant Iranian and Iraqi oil networks. This complex situation of “talking and fighting, sanctioning and engaging” keeps the outlook of the crisis full of uncertainties.

Saudi Arabia opens its airspace, US prepares to restart “Freedom Plan”

Reports indicate that the previous US launch of the “Freedom Plan” triggered the biggest military dispute between the US and Saudi Arabia in recent years. Saudi officials stated that, because senior US military official Dan Caine downplayed Iranian attacks on Fujairah in the UAE and other places as minor harassment, Saudi and other Gulf countries worried they might not receive US protection if conflict escalated, which led to a temporary ban on US military use of Saudi bases and airspace. This restriction forced Trump to suspend the operation only 36 hours after it began.

However, after a telephone conversation between Trump and Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the restrictions were lifted, and Kuwait followed suit.

US Department of Defense officials say the Trump administration is currently seeking to restart the operation. Defense officials stated that once the operation resumes, commercial vessels coordinated with the US will sail through a narrow, mine-cleared passage under the protection of US warships and aircraft.

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth previously stated that the US has built a strong defensive dome over the Strait, with hundreds of fighter jets, helicopters, and reconnaissance planes providing all-weather monitoring and protection for peaceful commercial ships.

Firefights inside and outside the Strait, military conflict escalates rapidly

Along with preparations for US military escort operations, armed clashes are spreading across the region.

CCTV News quoted a statement from an Iranian armed forces spokesperson, saying that the US, in cooperation with some regional countries, launched airstrikes on civilian areas along the coast of Iran’s Hamil, Sirik, and Qeshm Island, and struck two ships heading for or entering the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian official media reported multiple explosions near Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, some of which hit commercial facilities.

In response, Iranian armed forces struck US military vessels east of the Strait of Hormuz and south of the port of Chabahar. CCTV, citing Iranian sources, said three US Navy destroyers near the Strait were hit and are now withdrawing toward the Sea of Oman. Furthermore, Iranian air defense forces shot down two "hostile aircraft" over southern Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island.

Regarding the firefights, US Central Command responded that the US Navy intercepted Iran’s unprovoked attacks and carried out targeted strikes on Iranian military facilities responsible for the attacks. An Israeli government source told the media that Israel has nothing to do with the explosions near Bandar Abbas.

Short-term ceasefire agreement faces challenges, core differences remain

Amid intensifying military friction, diplomatic mediation is entering a critical stage.

According to reports, the US and Iran may be close to reaching a temporary agreement based on a one-page memorandum. This agreement aims to formally end hostilities, resolve the Strait crisis, and initiate a 30-day negotiation window. Notably, the draft sets aside several core demands previously insisted on by the US, including that Iran hand over its highly enriched uranium reserves, suspend uranium enrichment activities for 20 years, limit its missile program, and stop supporting regional proxy armed forces.

Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Tahir Andrabi, representing the mediators, said the agreement is expected to be reached soon and expressed optimism about progress. Saudi Al-Hadath TV also predicted that a breakthrough regarding stranded ships could be achieved within hours.

However, Iran continues to maintain a tough stance internally. Reports indicate that former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Mohsen Rezaei emphasized Iran will not allow the US to reopen the Strait on the basis of "unrealistic proposals" and to withdraw without compensating Iran's losses.

According to US intelligence assessments, Iran, under the current blockade pressure, has considerable negotiation endurance. Classified CIA assessments suggest Iran can withstand the US maritime blockade for at least another three to four months before facing more severe economic pressure.

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