Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose to a four-month high in July, while Russia's seaborne crude oil export revenue hit a three-month high in September.

Data released Tuesday by the Joint Organization Data Initiative (JODI) showed that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in July increased by about 3.3% from June to 4.125 million barrels per day, the highest level since March. Saudi crude oil production, meanwhile, rose to 8.135 million barrels per day from 7.122 million barrels per day in June.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, "Saudi crude oil and refined product exports both increased in July as regional tensions eased." However, he added that exports in August are likely to weaken, especially from Red Sea ports, as tensions related to the Houthis escalate again.

Data shows that Saudi refineries processed 20,000 barrels per day in July, down from 2.498 million barrels per day in June, to 2.478 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia also directly burned crude oil, down 22,403 barrels per day from June levels to 561,100 barrels per day.

In the four weeks ending September 20, Russian seaborne crude oil exports fell slightly to 3.53 million barrels per day, while the total export value rose to $2.1 billion per week, the highest since the week of June 14, mainly driven by rising global oil prices.

Brent crude futures fell 1.78% to $98.55 a barrel on Tuesday.

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In geopolitical terms, according to a Wall Street Journal article on Tuesday , an Iranian official stated that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States eases military pressure and lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. However, subsequent Iranian sources denied the report.

On Monday, Yemen's Houthi rebels attempted to seize strategic high ground to sever the Red Sea coast from other areas controlled by Saudi-backed forces. According to CCTV International News, an airstrike against the Houthis was on the verge of taking place last Sunday, but US President Trump called it off at the last minute.

On Tuesday, signals emerged that Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline was restarting . Saudi Aramco is accelerating repairs to damaged pumping stations, and signs of tankers arriving at Yanbu port have been observed. The goal is to resume crude oil exports as early as this week. The pipeline restart is expected to alleviate supply disruptions, but uncertainties remain regarding the progress of the restart and the safety of the Red Sea shipping route.

Previously, a drone attack forced Saudi Arabia to shut down the oil pipeline on September 13.

Russian oil export revenue hit a three-month high, but the prospects for Saudi production recovery and the threat of US tariffs remain uncertain.

Russia's oil export revenues recently climbed to their highest level in more than three months, but this momentum is facing dual pressures: Saudi Arabia is accelerating the restoration of pipeline supplies to the west coast, and the newly signed U.S. tariff authorization bill has made India, Russia's largest oil buyer, more cautious about its purchasing prospects.

According to Bloomberg data, in the four weeks ending September 20, Russian seaborne crude oil exports fell slightly to 3.53 million barrels per day, while the total export value rose to $2.1 billion per week, the highest since the week of June 14, mainly driven by rising global oil prices.

However, Saudi Arabia is bypassing the damaged pumping stations and restarting the East-West oil pipeline, a move that has pushed global oil prices down, putting downward pressure on Russian crude oil prices.

Meanwhile, Trump has signed a bill authorizing tariffs of up to 100% on Russia's top five energy importers. Indian buyers, who have been the largest purchasers of Russian seaborne crude oil in recent months, are already on high alert and may reduce their imports.

It is reported that India may reduce its recent share of Russian crude oil imports from over half to 20% to 30%, which means that daily purchases may decrease by more than 1 million barrels, forcing Russia to find other buyers.

Russian refineries continue to be attacked, leading to more crude oil being exported.

Russian oil refining facilities have been hit repeatedly, increasing export pressure.

Over the past week, refineries with a daily processing capacity of nearly 1 million barrels of crude oil have been shut down, either partially or completely. The affected facilities include those in Sezlan, Yaroslavl, Moscow, Ufa, and Kuibyshev.

The attacks led to a decrease in domestic crude oil processing in Russia, with some of the oil that could not be processed domestically being diverted to exports. Bloomberg data shows that Russia's seaborne exports so far this year are nearly 300,000 barrels per day higher than the average of any full year since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.

Trump has publicly expressed his dissatisfaction with the damage to Russia's diesel processing capacity, blaming the rise in diesel prices on Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries rather than the situation in the Middle East.

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